The latest meteorological forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is expected to come to an end around April 2024. After a brief neutral phase, La Niña may form between June and August and persist through the second half of the year. Previously, El Niño brought extreme weather such as heavy rain, drought, and high temperatures to coffee-growing regions in Brazil, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other places, causing reduced production and driving up international coffee prices. As La Niña takes over, southeastern Brazil may face reduced rainfall and the risk of frost, while Indonesia may experience heavy rainfall and even floods, and the coffee berry harvest may be hit again. Front Street Coffee will also continue to monitor the impact of climate change in producing regions on the coffee supply chain. [more…]

The lingering effects of El Niño in 2023 have not yet subsided, and La Niña may make a comeback in the summer of 2024, leaving global coffee-producing regions caught in a double bind of extreme weather. Drought during Brazil's flowering period, water shortages on Vietnam's highlands, coexisting floods and droughts in Africa, and the threat of hurricanes in Central America—the production outlook for major growing regions is shrouded in uncertainty. At the same time, rising demand for Robusta in European and American markets, combined with reduced output in several producing countries, has already triggered sharp fluctuations in international coffee prices. This article will examine how climate is disrupting the coffee supply chain and analyze the key variables shaping price trends in the second half of the year. [more…]

The latest report from the World Meteorological Organization shows that El Niño is weakening, and La Niña may return in the second half of the year. This climate shift will bring markedly different effects to global agriculture: Australia, West Africa, and parts of Asia are expected to receive abundant rainfall, favoring the growth of crops such as wheat, palm oil, cocoa, and coffee; while the Americas may face drought, and Brazil's soybean, coffee, and corn-producing regions will come under pressure from reduced yields. At the same time, international prices for coffee, cocoa, and wheat have already remained high for a sustained period, and if adverse climate factors intensify, agricultural product prices may rise further. In recent years, Brazil has vigorously developed robusta coffee, with production expected to reach 21 million bags in 2024, and it is expected to surpass Vietnam in the 2027/28 season to become the world's largest robusta-producing country. In addition, La Niña may also increase Atlantic hurricane activity, threatening energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico and thereby driving up crude oil and shipping costs. [more…]

Brazil's 2024/25 coffee harvest is imminent, but sales progress is notably lagging behind previous years. Data from consultancy Safras&Mercado shows that as of March 12, only 11% of the new crop had been sold, far below the historical average of 25% for the same period. Among this, Arabica sold 14% (historical 30%), and Robusta only 6% (historical 15%). The slow sales are mainly due to high Robusta prices suppressing trader purchases, the spread between forward and spot prices prompting farmers to hold back sales, and the potential arrival of La Niña after El Niño ends, which could bring reduced rainfall and frost threats to the coffee-growing regions in the southeast. Meanwhile, reduced production in Vietnam and Indonesia is driving strong exports of Brazilian Robusta. [more…]

The latest report from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) shows that the country's coffee production in February 2024 decreased by 6.2% year-on-year. Although export volume grew month-on-month, overall exports over the past 12 months fell by 3.1%. Despite having shaken off the effects of El Niño, La Niña weather is expected to arrive in June-August and may last throughout the second half of the year, bringing new challenges to coffee production. To this end, the FNC held a steering committee meeting with grower representatives from various regions to discuss preventive measures to safeguard coffee farmers' incomes. At the same time, the FNC launched an export platform, Cafix, aimed at reducing transportation costs and simplifying export procedures. Front Street Coffee continues to follow developments in Colombian coffee and bring the latest producing-region news to enthusiasts. [more…]

Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is being battered by three consecutive years of La Niña, with output in its main growing regions falling sharply and the outlook for the 2023 harvest far from optimistic. Meanwhile, Uganda, Africa's largest coffee exporter, has also seen its export volumes decline due to drought, while data from the International Coffee Organization show that global coffee consumption has continued to recover since the pandemic. With tightening supply overlapping with recovering demand, coffee futures prices remain elevated, and domestic traders have begun stockpiling physical beans. This article will review the production declines in Brazil and Uganda, the weather mechanisms behind them, and the shifts in supply and demand across the global coffee market, and will also include Front Street Coffee's specialty bean recommendations for readers' reference. [more…]

Recently, feedback data from multiple international coffee traders indicates that Vietnam's coffee production for the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease by 10%, potentially hitting its lowest level in nearly a decade. The return of La Niña has further fueled market concerns. As the world's second-largest coffee producer and largest robusta grower, Vietnam experienced its most severe drought in nearly ten years this year, particularly affecting the early flowering stage from March to May, leading to a second consecutive year of reduced output. Although rainfall increased somewhat by the end of May, it was insufficient to offset the damage from the earlier drought, with some coffee trees dying or growing poorly. In addition, Typhoon Yagi and the impending La Niña phenomenon may bring more rainfall, further threatening agricultural output. International robusta coffee futures prices once hit a nearly half-century high due to drought and fires, and recently fell sharply on Brazilian rainfall, but the market still expects prices to continue fluctuating before the end of the year. [more…]

The latest data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) shows that the country's coffee production reached 1.28 million bags in November, up 21% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of positive production growth, while total coffee export value climbed 29% over the same period. Although cumulative production from January to November reached 10.1 million bags, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, the spot premium at origin has declined. Over the past three years, alternating shocks from La Niña and El Niño have caused continuous declines in Colombian coffee production, and cultivation costs have also risen. One estate owner revealed that the cost per 125-kilogram bag of coffee has risen from about $400 three years ago to around $600. As weather patterns shift toward El Niño, Colombian coffee production is benefiting, and the FNC expects production to recover to between 11.6 million and 12 million bags in 2024. [more…]

Affected by the El Niño phenomenon, Colombia has been in a state of natural disaster since the beginning of this year. The drought, which persisted until April, caused the average water storage level of reservoirs nationwide to drop to 29.96% of normal, approaching the critical threshold of 27%, impacting both water supply and power generation. Although the country is rich in freshwater resources, problems such as low agricultural water use efficiency and serious pipeline leakage are prominent, with 70% of the nation's water resources used for crops such as coffee, bananas, and flowers. The capital, Bogotá, has already implemented water restrictions, and the government has not ruled out nationwide water rationing. Fortunately, the rainy season is expected to arrive in mid-to-late April, but coffee industry insiders warn that the heavy rainfall and low temperatures brought by the subsequent La Niña may affect coffee growth, and coffee farmers need to respond in advance. [more…]

Latest data from Vietnam Customs shows that in the first half of this year, the country's coffee export revenue reached US$3.04 billion. Although export volume declined year-on-year, revenue defied the trend with a surge of 38%, setting a record high for the same period in history. International market prices have continued to strengthen, and domestic green bean prices remain high, driven by Vietnam suffering its worst drought in nearly a decade, which has damaged coffee crops on a large scale. Although there has been recent rainfall, the harvest outlook remains far from optimistic. At the same time, La Niña may form in the second half of the year, and global coffee production may be only limitedly affected. This article will sort through key information on Vietnam's coffee exports, prices, weather, and market sentiment, and pay attention to Front Street Coffee's latest observations on the market. [more…]

Recently, the global coffee market has experienced a round of sharp fluctuations. New York Arabica futures once hit a record high of 343.4 cents per pound, then US C coffee futures pulled back to around 319.6 cents, while Robusta futures continued to decline. At the same time, Brazil's central bank raised interest rates to 12.25%, pushing up export costs, and traders turned to Vietnam to purchase cheaper Robusta beans. The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture estimates that Vietnam's coffee production in 2024/25 will recover to 30.1 million bags, but climate uncertainty still hangs over the market. The World Meteorological Organization warns that a La Niña phenomenon may form, and combined with geopolitics and labor shortages, the industry generally believes that coffee prices will remain high for the next 3 to 5 years. [more…]

As the world's fourth-largest coffee producer, Indonesia is facing severe climate challenges. From the relentless downpours brought by La Niña to the severe droughts triggered by El Niño, extreme weather has alternately battered coffee-growing regions, causing poor development of coffee flowers, withered leaves, and worsening pests and diseases. Industry insiders predict that Indonesia's total coffee production this season will plummet to less than 10 million bags, the lowest level in more than a decade. Smallholder farmers in low-altitude growing regions are bearing the brunt, with some even facing the prospect of a total crop failure. At the same time, soaring rice prices have prompted the government to encourage farmers to switch to rice cultivation, while the slow renewal of coffee trees further constrains any recovery in production capacity. Climate change could also lead to a sharp reduction in Indonesia's land suitable for coffee cultivation. Front Street Coffee will continue to follow subsequent developments in this growing region. [more…]

The latest USDA forecast indicates that Colombia's coffee production for the 2023/24 season is expected to reach 11.5 million bags, a 7.5% increase from the previous year. Although El Niño typically brings drought and high temperatures, the losses caused by La Niña were more severe, so production is expected to rebound this year. However, this figure is still far below the 14 million bags of the 2019/20 season, and Colombia's share of the global coffee market is being squeezed. Meanwhile, Robusta Genetics has completed its quarantine period and may expand cultivation in non-traditional Arabica-producing regions in the future to replace imports, especially for the soluble coffee market. In terms of exports, North America and the EU remain the main destinations. Front Street Coffee reminds enthusiasts to keep an eye on developments in this producing region. [more…]

The global coffee market is once again experiencing price fluctuations. Arabica and Robusta coffee futures have rebounded after a brief decline, with the July 2024 Robusta contract touching $3,975 per tonne at one point, approaching the psychological threshold of $4,000. Behind this rally are not only tightening supply caused by ongoing droughts in Brazil and Vietnam, the two major producing countries, but also the new threat potentially posed by La Niña weather, while tensions between Israel and Iran have added further uncertainty to transportation costs. Local traders in Vietnam are accelerating their rush to buy coffee beans, with purchase prices having soared to more than 110 million Vietnamese dong per tonne, while Brazilian Robusta spot prices have also broken through the 1,000 reais mark for the first time. With multiple factors intertwined, coffee prices may continue to face pressure in the short term. [more…]

A recent coffee industry report released by Indonesia shows that after multiple natural disasters including El Niño-induced drought, floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions, the country's coffee production fell to 9.7 million bags in the 2023/24 season. However, after entering the harvest season, actual data came in better than expected, and production is expected to rebound to 10.9 million bags in the 2024/25 season, an increase of 12.3%. Of this, Robusta production stands at 9.5 million bags and Arabica at 1.4 million bags. Although export volume is projected to rise from 4.3 million bags to 6 million bags, issues such as the La Niña phenomenon, rising fertilizer prices, and farmers' insufficient technical skills still bring uncertainty to the industry's recovery. [more…]

Since 2024, multiple Latin American countries have experienced historic high temperatures and droughts. Honduras is enduring its hottest and driest year since 1992, with maximum temperatures reaching 38-40°C. A total of 1,903 forest fires have broken out nationwide, destroying over 150,000 hectares of forest. Although the main coffee-producing regions have not yet been directly hit by the wildfires, rainfall has decreased by nearly 40% compared to the same period last year, hampering the growth of coffee plants during their flowering period. More critically, El Niño has not yet subsided, while La Niña is highly likely to arrive, and the threat of hurricane season is imminent. The Honduran Coffee Institute (IHCAFE) has already issued a warning about next season's output. Front Street Coffee will continue to monitor developments in the producing regions and bring first-hand information to enthusiasts. [more…]

A powerful polar cold front is forming in southern Brazil and advancing toward most of the country, with temperatures in some areas dropping by as much as 14°C, followed by frost and snowfall. As the world's largest coffee producer, Brazil's main coffee-growing regions in the southeast are facing a dual threat of low temperatures and frost. Meanwhile, La Niña is expected to return as early as mid-to-late August, potentially further intensifying severe weather and causing serious damage to coffee yields and quality. Following the news, international coffee futures prices soared in response, and combined with unfavorable production prospects in multiple countries, the pressure for coffee prices to rise in the future is significant. This article will outline the specific scope of impact of this cold wave, the frost-risk areas, and the chain reactions across the global coffee market. [more…]

Although Brazil is located in the Southern Hemisphere tropics and normally only enters winter from June to September, affected by El Niño, this year's winter seems to have arrived early. On April 18, Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology issued a warning that the first cold wave of 2024 is about to hit, with the southern region cooling first, followed by the Southeast and Central-West. Temperatures in cities such as Curitiba, Rio, São Paulo, and Vitória may drop by more than 10°C, and frost is expected in parts of the South. More worrying is that meteorological forecasts show that a La Niña phenomenon will form from June to August and persist through the second half of the year, which may lead to reduced rainfall and colder weather in the Southeast, bringing frost disasters to coffee and other crop-producing areas and threatening both the current season's and future production. Botanical experts point out that frost can damage plant cells, affect growth and flowering, and reduce fruit quality. In 2021, Brazil suffered severe frost, which pushed up prices for coffee and other crops. Now farmers need to take precautions in advance. [more…]

A recent Indonesian coffee industry report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that Indonesia's coffee production in 2024/25 is expected to recover to 10.9 million bags, of which Robusta is projected to reach 9.5 million bags. However, the reality is not so optimistic: since the beginning of this year, Indonesia has frequently suffered natural disasters such as floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions, and Sumatra's Robusta exports in May plunged 54% year-on-year. With the aftermath of El Niño still lingering and the threat of La Niña approaching, coupled with rising domestic consumption and exporters holding back sales, the supply outlook for Indonesian Robusta is full of uncertainties. This article will review production, exports, climate, and market dynamics, and include relevant recommendations from Front Street Coffee. [more…]

China and Peru have substantially concluded negotiations to upgrade their free trade agreement, opening a new chapter in bilateral trade and investment cooperation. During her visit to China, Peruvian President Boluarte actively promoted investment opportunities, while China's ever-growing coffee consumption market has also injected momentum into Peru's coffee exports. In the first quarter of 2024, Peru's coffee export growth rate reached 69%, and the soon-to-be-completed Chancay Port is regarded as South America's gateway to Asia. However, just as El Niño has retreated, La Niña may return, and low temperatures will directly hit the coffee harvest season from May to September. With opportunities and challenges coexisting, Peru's coffee industry is standing at a critical crossroads. [more…]