Vietnam's robusta harvest is hitting full stride, and farmgate prices are feeling it. As of November 6, growers in the Central Highlands are receiving roughly 83,300 to 84,000 VND per kilogram, a further slide from levels seen earlier in the harvest.

The most immediate force is seasonal: with the 2026/27 harvest at its peak, farmers are bringing more coffee to market at the same time, and short-term spot supply is weighing on quotations.

The production outlook points the same direction. The USDA expects Vietnam's 2026/27 coffee crop to grow about 2.5% to 32.5 million bags. For the world's largest robusta origin, a bigger crop feeds directly into weaker forward prices.

Export data confirm the faster pace of supply. Vietnam shipped around 114,000 tons of coffee in October, up 60.6% year on year — beans are being loaded onto vessels almost as fast as they are picked.

Exchange stocks deserve attention too. Certified robusta stocks on ICE have climbed to their highest level in about 15 months. Set against the extremely thin certified arabica stocks, deliverable robusta supply is building — which goes a long way to explaining why robusta futures have been the notably weaker of the two contracts lately.

Brazil adds pressure from the other side: expectations of a larger crop, combined with a weaker real that encourages exporters to sell, are pushing global coffee prices lower across the board.

Stack these together, and farmgate prices look set to hover near current levels in the near term. For roasters and traders, the buying window at origin is improving — Vietnamese beans offer more negotiating room than they did a few weeks ago. Two variables will decide how long this dip lasts: whether farmers keep selling into the harvest or hold beans for a rebound, and whether Brazil's production forecasts are revised higher again.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.