How do La Niña and El Niño affect coffee growing conditions?

Forecasts point to El Niño ending around April 2024, a brief neutral phase, then La Niña forming between June and August and lasting through the second half of the year. That shift matters for coffee because El Niño already brought heavy rain, drought and heat to growing regions in Brazil, India, Vietnam and Indonesia, cutting yields and pushing international prices up.

La Niña tends to bring the opposite pattern: southeastern Brazil may see less rainfall and frost risk, while Indonesia could face heavy rain and flooding that damages the coffee berry harvest. In the 2022/23 season, El Salvador's coffee output fell by about 1,500 tons with losses near US$8 million, and Colombian production also declined. Climate remains a key variable in where does coffee grow successfully.

The latest meteorological forecasts show that El Niño is expected to come to an end around April 2024. After a brief neutral phase, La Niña may form between June and August and persist through the second half of the year. Previously, El Niño brought extreme weather such as heavy rain, drought, and high temperatures to coffee-growing regions in Brazil, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and elsewhere, causing reduced yields and driving up international coffee prices. As La Niña takes over, southeastern Brazil may face reduced rainfall and frost risk, while Indonesia may experience heavy rain and even flooding, potentially dealing another blow to the coffee berry harvest. Front Street Coffee will also continue to monitor the impact of climate change in producing regions on the coffee supply chain.

According to the latest forecast released by the Climate Prediction Center of the meteorological bureau, El Niño conditions are expected to end around April 2024. This will be followed by a neutral period, and between June and August, La Niña is expected to form and continue affecting the entire second half of the year.

In recent times, El Niño has continued to affect coffee-producing regions. Whenever this phenomenon occurs, global climate tends to become abnormal. Rising sea surface temperatures and enhanced convective activity frequently trigger extreme weather such as heavy rain, floods, hurricanes, and droughts. At the same time, the chain effects of El Niño and global warming have also led to "historic temperature highs" in multiple months. Although El Niño has now weakened somewhat, it is usually stronger in its second year, and it is still affecting coffee-producing regions at present.

El Niño brought heavy rain to parts of Brazil, plunged India into drought, caused drought in Vietnam's coffee regions in early 2024, and also brought high heat to Indonesia, with coffee bean production potentially falling sharply by 30% to 40%.

The Salvadoran Coffee Association reported that the country's coffee production in the 2022/23 year will decrease by about 1,500 tons, with economic losses amounting to about US$8 million. Colombian coffee has likewise been affected by El Niño, with production declining. Many countries suffered reduced production in the 2022/23 coffee season. Combined with geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Red Sea issue, coffee prices continued to soar, and a shortage of international coffee inventories also emerged.

The return of La Niña will cause widespread and sustained abnormal cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon will bring above-normal rainfall to Indonesia, eastern Australia, northeastern Brazil, and other places, while the equatorial zone of Africa, the southeastern United States, and other areas are prone to drought.

In addition, Brazil predicts that the return of La Niña may reduce rainfall and bring colder weather to southeastern Brazil, while increasing rainfall and humidity in the northeast. Cold weather will cause temperatures in coffee-producing regions to drop rapidly, bringing frost disasters and damaging coffee production in the current season and future seasons.

As for Indonesia, La Niña will bring heavy rainfall and even flooding. Heavy rain can easily knock down unripe coffee cherries, affecting the coffee berry harvest and leading to reduced production. Moreover, recent research indicates that climate change may reduce the land available for coffee cultivation in Indonesia by 21-37%.

The occurrence of these conditions may further drive up coffee prices.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.