What the Colombian coffee crop rebound means for supply

Colombia's coffee production reached 1.28 million bags in November, up 21% year on year, the third consecutive month of growth, while total export value rose 29%. Cumulative output from January to November was 10.1 million bags, a slight 0.3% increase. Spot premiums at origin have meanwhile fallen.

Three years of alternating La Nina and El Nino conditions had pushed production down and raised cultivation costs. One estate owner reported the cost of a 125-kilogram bag rising from about US$400 to roughly US$600. With conditions shifting toward El Nino, the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia expects production to rebound to between 11.6 million and 12 million bags in 2024. November exports alone were 1.09 million bags, up 29%.

Latest data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) shows that the country's coffee production reached 1.28 million bags in November, up 21% year-on-year, achieving positive production growth for three consecutive months, while total coffee export value climbed 29% over the same period. Although cumulative production from January to November totaled 10.1 million bags, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, spot premiums at origin declined. Over the past three years, alternating La Niña and El Niño shocks have caused Colombia's coffee production to keep falling, and cultivation costs have also risen steadily. One estate owner revealed that the cost per 125-kilogram bag of coffee has risen from about US$400 three years ago to around US$600. As weather patterns shift toward El Niño, Colombian coffee production is ushering in favorable conditions, and the FNC expects production to rebound to between 11.6 million and 12 million bags in 2024.

Recently, the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) released data showing that Colombia's coffee production reached 1.28 million bags in November, up 21% compared with the same period last year, maintaining production growth for three consecutive months. At the same time, Colombia's total coffee export value increased by 29%.

In addition, from January to November, Colombia's cumulative coffee production was 10.1 million bags, a slight increase of 0.3% over the same period last year. However, alongside the recovery in production, spot coffee premiums at origin have fallen.

Over the past three years, Colombia has encountered numerous challenges and has recently also been affected by La Niña and El Niño phenomena, with production continuing to decline and cultivation costs constantly climbing.

A Colombian coffee estate owner said that the cost of producing one bag of coffee now has to increase by more than 50%. Taking his coffee estate as an example, the current cost of a 125-kilogram bag of coffee is about US$600, whereas three years ago this figure was only around US$400, a notable increase in cultivation costs.

On the export side, Colombia exported a total of 1.09 million bags of coffee in November, up 29% from the same period last year. Cumulative exports from January to November totaled 9.5 million bags, but this was down 8% compared with the same period last year.

Earlier, before La Niña weather shifted to El Niño, continuous rainfall delayed the flowering and ripening of local coffee trees. In 2022, Colombia's coffee production was only 11.08 million bags, the lowest level since 2013. Including 2022, Colombia had seen production declines for three consecutive years, which also caused the country's spot coffee prices to rise sharply.

Recently, the La Niña phenomenon has shifted to El Niño. Although this shift will have serious effects on other countries, it is favorable for Colombia, as weather conditions have improved and Colombian coffee production has been able to recover.

Therefore, the FNC predicts that Colombia's coffee production in 2024 will be between 11.6 million and 12 million bags, and is expected to end the three consecutive years of production declines. In addition, the United States Department of Agriculture also predicts that Colombia's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year can reach 10.7 million bags (60 kg/bag), and coffee exports in the 2023/24 crop year are estimated at 12 million bags (60 kg/bag).

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