How Does La Niña Affect Coffee Production in World Markets?

The World Meteorological Organization reports El Niño is weakening and La Niña may return, with odds rising from 60 percent between July and September to 70 percent from August to November. Australia, West Africa, and parts of Asia should get more rain, while the Americas face drought that could cut yields in Brazil's coffee regions and push prices higher.

Brazil has expanded what is coffee robusta cultivation there, with output expected to reach 21 million bags in 2024 and to pass Vietnam in the 2027/28 season as the largest robusta producer. La Niña can also raise Atlantic hurricane activity, threatening Gulf of Mexico energy infrastructure and lifting crude oil and shipping costs that feed into coffee production in world trade.

The latest report from the World Meteorological Organization shows that El Niño is weakening, and La Niña may return in the second half of the year. This climate shift will bring markedly different effects to global agriculture: Australia, West Africa, and parts of Asia are expected to receive abundant rainfall, favoring crops such as wheat, palm oil, cocoa, and coffee; while the Americas may face drought, with Brazil's soybean, coffee, and corn-producing regions coming under pressure from reduced yields. At the same time, international prices for coffee, cocoa, and wheat have already remained high, and if adverse climate factors intensify, agricultural commodity prices could climb further. In recent years, Brazil has vigorously developed its robusta coffee industry, with production expected to reach 21 million bags in 2024, and it is expected to surpass Vietnam in the 2027/28 season to become the world's largest robusta-producing country. In addition, La Niña may also increase Atlantic hurricane activity, threatening energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico and thereby driving up crude oil and shipping costs.

Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a report stating that El Niño, which triggers extreme weather, is weakening and is expected to transition to La Niña later this year. The "return" of La Niña may bring cold weather to the globe after it has experienced record-breaking high temperatures.

The World Meteorological Organization said that neutral conditions and the occurrence of La Niña are equally likely (50% each), but from July to September the probability of La Niña rising to 60%, and from August to November increasing further to 70%.

The Deputy Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization emphasized that the end of El Niño does not mean the long-term climate change process has paused; due to greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth will continue to warm. In addition, the extra heat and moisture in the atmosphere will make future weather more extreme.

The latest report points out that Australia, West Africa, and Asia will see relatively abundant rainfall, and the number of tropical cyclones (typhoons) will also increase, which is favorable for Australia's wheat and for crops such as palm oil, cocoa, and coffee in Asia and Africa.

But on the other hand, the Americas will face drought, leading to a sharp decline in crop yields, especially in southern Brazil, which is the main planting area for Brazil's soybeans, coffee, corn, and other crops.

Recently, affected by weather factors, international prices for crops such as coffee beans, cocoa, and wheat have remained high. If the adverse effects of climate change on major global producing regions intensify in the second half of the year, agricultural commodity prices may rise further.

To this end, Brazil has vigorously developed its robusta coffee industry in recent years. According to the report, Brazil's robusta production in 2024 is expected to reach 21 million bags (60 kg/bag), second only to Vietnam's estimated 24 million bags, and it says Brazil is expected to surpass Vietnam in the 2027/28 season to become the world's largest robusta coffee-producing country.

According to local reports, Brazil's traditional robusta-producing regions, such as Minas Gerais, have begun conducting robusta coffee cultivation research, and under good conditions, coffee yields can reach 120 bags per hectare.

In addition, La Niña may hit global trade. Earlier, when forecasting this year's Atlantic hurricane season, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had already taken La Niña's impact into account, predicting that the Atlantic will see 4 to 7 hurricanes from June to November.

The Gulf of Mexico is a common landfall area for Atlantic hurricanes, and offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico accounts for 17% of total U.S. crude oil production, while more than 45% of total U.S. refining capacity is located along the Gulf Coast. If hurricanes destroy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, it could lead to higher global crude oil prices.

International shipping is a mode of transport that relies heavily on fuel. If international crude oil prices rise, it will bring enormous cost pressure to the shipping industry, and shipping freight rates will rise accordingly.

For coffee lovers, paying attention to climate change in producing regions and price fluctuations is particularly important. Front Street Coffee suggests that in everyday purchasing, you can watch the subsequent performance of Brazilian robusta coffee beans, while also paying attention to the potential impact of La Niña on global supply chains, and reasonably plan your purchases.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.