A drought and forest fires lasting for months are sweeping across South America, and Colombia has not been spared. Forests in many places have been burned, water sources are running dangerously low, the water level of the Amazon River has plummeted, and Cauca Department has suffered its worst fires in nearly three decades, with large numbers of coffee crops damaged. Water rationing policies have left coffee farmers in a dilemma: insufficient irrigation affects yields, while exceeding water limits brings fines. The latest data show that Colombia's coffee production had fallen to 1.05 million bags in August, with inventories down 7.2% month on month. As the world's third-largest coffee-producing country, declining output and inventories are pushing up international coffee prices. [more…]

In the final days of 2025, Luckin employees were busy with year-end inventory checks when they unexpectedly received a notice to calibrate store equipment stock, requiring them to verify whether small base-ingredient scoops and ice cream scoops were complete. This move immediately sparked speculation: is the brand about to launch a new product that requires scooping ice cream balls on site? Veteran employees were also reminded of the cumbersome add-in tea drinks from the Little Deer Tea era. With timeliness and hourly cup volume assessments becoming increasingly stringent, complex new products will undoubtedly add pressure on stores. Workers generally resist it, but some optimistic people think it may just be a routine inventory check. [more…]

Recently, Arabica and Robusta coffee prices have continued their upward trend. Weather forecasts for Brazil's producing regions show a downward revision in the probability of rainfall, while the real has risen to a near one-and-a-half-week high against the US dollar, dampening the pace of exports. Robusta inventories have fallen to historic lows, and sellers in Vietnam are also holding back supply, while tensions in the Red Sea and drought in the Panama Canal have further pushed up shipping costs. With multiple factors intertwined, the global coffee supply chain is facing a severe test. [more…]

During this year's Dragon Boat Festival, several Starbucks stores in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region ran short of Frappuccino Zongzi (sticky rice dumplings), leaving customers holding redemption vouchers unable to collect their goods as scheduled. At some stores, heated arguments broke out between customers and staff. Some employees were reduced to tears by verbal abuse, while other customers threatened to call the police or expose the situation. Starbucks responded that it had made every effort to meet redemption demand, but some consumers remained dissatisfied with the compensation package. This supply-demand conflict triggered by a zongzi shortage reveals deeper issues in the brand's allocation and inventory management of seasonal products. [more…]

The latest monthly report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that the composite indicator price for coffee stood at 176.41 US cents per pound in January, edging up 0.4% month-on-month, but the overall trend has continued to fluctuate amid multiple disruptive factors. Robusta coffee prices surged to their highest level since November 1994, with tight supply in Vietnam and a wave of contract renegotiations further intensifying pressure on global supply. At the same time, the Red Sea crisis has driven up transport costs, and coffee inventories on the US ICE exchange have fallen to historic lows. Although Brazil's producing regions suffered drought, some institutions still raised their production forecasts, and with bullish and bearish factors intertwined, the outlook for the coffee market is full of uncertainty. [more…]

The latest monthly report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that the average composite indicator price for coffee in May was 208.38 cents per pound, down 3.9% month-on-month. Easing drought in Vietnam and dry weather in Brazil favorable for harvesting, combined with supply uncertainty in Central America and the depreciation of the real, intertwined to affect price trends. Global coffee inventories increased substantially, with green bean exports in April rising 15.3% year-on-year, among which Brazil's exports grew strongly by 54.8%. The ICO expects global coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year to rise 5.8% to 178 million bags, while consumption demand will grow 2.2% to 177 million bags, with the market showing a trend of simultaneous growth in both supply and demand. [more…]

Brazil's coffee exports suffered a severe setback in January, with export volumes falling by about 10% year-on-year, driven by a customs clearance standstill caused by strikes by customs brokers at the Port of Santos and Guarulhos Airport. At the same time, coffee stocks at major European ports are rapidly dwindling, with inventories in December 2023 down 37.9% from the start of the year. The pressure of the EU Deforestation Regulation transition period combined with the Red Sea shipping crisis is creating a compounding effect, prompting traders to scale back imports, container freight rates on Asia-Europe routes have soared by 150%, and coffee deliveries from Asian producing regions are facing delays of up to three weeks. Multiple factors are reshaping the global coffee trade landscape, and supply chain pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term. [more…]

The dual impact of persistent drought and uneven rainfall distribution has cast a shadow over the global robusta coffee supply outlook. In Vietnam's Dak Lak province, about 40% of coffee trees still lack water, and coffee production is expected to decline by 20% to a four-year low; in Brazil's largest producing region, Minas Gerais, there has been no rain for three consecutive weeks. Although prices previously plummeted due to a recovery in exports and the restoration of international inventories, signs of a rebound have recently emerged. Global financial services platform Marex Group Plc predicts that, affected by reduced production in Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia, the global robusta coffee market will face a supply gap of 2.7 million bags next year, and upward pressure on prices should not be underestimated. [more…]

For a coffee shop that roasts its own beans, having the roaster in place is only the starting point; what truly determines the quality of the final product is the quality of the green beans and the roasting craft. Green bean costs often account for a significant proportion of initial operating expenses, so how to choose the right items, control inventory, maintain stable supply, and leverage peer cooperation to lower the threshold for acquiring specialty beans is a challenge every operator must face. Starting from the cost structure of green beans, this article sorts out the three major purchasing points for basic espresso blend beans, explores the value of establishing horizontal partnerships, offers practical suggestions for display and storage, and finally includes flavor descriptions of several Front Street espresso blend beans for coffee shops with different positioning to reference when selecting beans. [more…]

Sumida River Coffee once used "fresh-lock" technology and Japanese manufacturing as selling points, achieving impressive results in the online market and setting a goal of exceeding 1 billion in offline revenue within three years. However, recently, issues such as the departure of its CMO and consumer complaints about near-expiry products have surfaced, exposing the brand's inventory and channel challenges amid rapid expansion. This article reviews Sumida River's development history, marketing strategies, and offline dilemmas, interspersed with Front Street brand recommendations, offering coffee enthusiasts an in-depth observation. [more…]

Luckin Coffee's "Triumphant McCafé Series" non-alcoholic beer drinks, launched in collaboration with Havoc in Heaven, has been declared fully discontinued after a brief market trial. This limited-edition product, once promoted for "containing 90ml of non-alcoholic beer" and briefly trending on Weibo, ultimately led to significant inventory buildup in many stores due to lackluster consumer feedback and low repurchase rates. Before September 30, all stores are required to destroy all beer ingredients on their own, and social platforms have once again seen spectacular scenes of employees collectively pouring out the drinks. This article will review the entire process of the series from its high-profile launch to its quiet exit, analyzing the challenges and helplessness that fast-moving consumer chain brands face in product lifecycle management. [more…]

ICE-certified exchange stocks have fallen to a 26-year low of less than 220,000 bags, with large volumes of Brazilian arabica being shipped to delivery warehouses; meanwhile, a Reuters survey projects that arabica prices will fall 8.8% by the end of 2026, while robusta will rise 4.6%. How will stock rebuilding and El Niño weather shape the coffee market outlook? [more…]

Recently, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) released the monthly report of the global coffee market in May, showing that the average price of the comprehensive index is 208.38 cents/pound, which has slightly decreased by 3.9% compared to th [more…]

In April of this year, robusta coffee futures soared to a historic peak of $4,399 per ton, then briefly fell back to $3,440 per ton due to recovering export data from Brazil and Vietnam and rising ICE inventories. However, recently, weather issues in Brazil and Vietnam have shown no signs of improvement, and robusta futures for July delivery have surged again, currently quoted at $3,917 per ton, just a step away from the $4,000 mark. A Volcafe report predicts that Vietnam's robusta production for the 2024/25 season may drop to 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years; Brazil's main producing regions have gone four consecutive weeks without rain, and new beans are smaller in size; the market is also concerned about the return of La Niña. With multiple factors overlapping, global robusta bean supply is expected to face a shortage for the fourth consecutive year. [more…]

The latest report from the Brazilian government shows that more than 1,000 cities across the country are experiencing extreme or severe drought, with the number of fires hitting a near-decade high. Experts assess this as the most severe drought in the past 70 years. The northern Amazonas state and Mato Grosso do Sul state are particularly hard hit, while Minas Gerais, the main coffee-producing region, also faces the threat of high temperatures and scant rainfall. To cope with the adverse effects, Brazilian coffee regions are accelerating their harvest pace, but domestic market inventories are tight, expectations for new-crop supply have been revised downward, and the global coffee market remains highly attentive to changes in Brazilian supply. [more…]

A furniture company in Binh Duong Province, Vietnam, triggered a strike by hundreds of workers over several consecutive days due to an unclear notice about wage adjustments. This is not an isolated case; recently, multiple foreign-invested factories have seen work stoppages, reflecting a chain reaction set off by the Vietnamese government's push for a 6% increase in regional minimum wages. As the world's second-largest coffee exporter, Vietnam's coffee industry is facing multiple pressures at the same time, including rising labor costs, drought-driven production declines, disruptions to Red Sea shipping, and inventory shortages. Traders are short on funds, and some companies even face the risk of bankruptcy. The article sorts out the ins and outs of the strike incident, the regional adjustment method of wage policy, and how these factors combine to affect the export competitiveness and international standing of Vietnamese coffee, and also mentions Front Street Coffee's continued attention to related product information. [more…]

Recently, Starbucks has experienced drink price increases in the US market, driven by a mix of factors including rising labor costs, a poor harvest of Brazilian Arabica coffee beans, and inflation. Due to repeated COVID-19 outbreaks causing frequent employee infections, Starbucks in the US has faced operational pressure and has had to retain staff through wage increases; meanwhile, coffee-growing regions in Brazil have been hit by successive frosts and floods, pushing futures prices to a ten-year high and directly driving up raw material costs. Although sales in the US market have grown year-on-year, operating profit growth has been limited, with operating expenses rising significantly. So will this wave of price increases affect the Chinese market? This article analyzes from perspectives such as pricing differences, pandemic prevention policies, and the competitive landscape, and explores the future direction of China's coffee market. [more…]

Recently, spot prices for Brazilian Arabica coffee soared to a 26-year high, reaching 1,805.68 reais per 60-kg bag, a monthly increase of 18.3%. Declining inventories, downward revisions to production forecasts, unstable weather, and exchange rate fluctuations jointly pushed prices higher. At the same time, severe delays at the Port of Santos and the Port of Rio de Janeiro left 1.717 million bags of coffee stranded, causing foreign exchange losses of approximately US$489.72 million, while exporters also bore high demurrage costs. Robusta coffee prices also rose slightly. This article provides a detailed analysis of the current price trends, weather impacts, port difficulties, and exchange rate pressures in the Brazilian coffee market. [more…]

The global coffee market is facing severe supply challenges. Affected by Brazil's worst drought in nearly 70 years and adverse weather in Central America, New York arabica coffee futures prices have soared, breaking through $3.43 per pound to reach a record high since statistics began in 1970. Meanwhile, the production outlook for robusta coffee in Vietnam is equally unpromising. Major trader Volcafe has sharply lowered its forecast for Brazil's production and predicts a fifth consecutive year of global coffee supply deficit. Driven by multiple factors including tight inventories, geopolitics, and rising shipping costs, coffee prices are expected to remain high, with the ultimate cost pressure being passed on to consumers. [more…]

The imbalance between supply and demand in the global coffee market has further intensified, with coffee inventories in Brazil, the largest producing country, having fallen to their lowest level since records began in the 1960s. Although Brazil's total coffee production in 2022/23 grew by 6.7% year-on-year, inventories plummeted by 88% year-on-year, leaving only 540,000 bags. Arabica failed to reach expected output due to drought and frost, while Vietnam's Robusta inventories also halved, tightening supply for both major varieties at the same time. Brazil's low conversion rate of fresh cherries has further exacerbated the shortage, and coffee prices face sustained upward pressure. This article will review the latest data and the underlying causes, and includes professional recommendations from Front Street Coffee. [more…]