The imbalance between supply and demand in the global coffee market has further intensified, with coffee inventories in Brazil, the largest producing country, having fallen to their lowest level since records began in the 1960s. Although Brazil's total coffee production in 2022/23 grew by 6.7% year-on-year, inventories plummeted by 88% year-on-year, leaving only 540,000 bags. Arabica failed to reach expected output due to drought and frost, while Vietnam's Robusta inventories also halved, tightening supply for both major varieties at the same time. Brazil's low conversion rate of fresh cherries has further exacerbated the shortage, and coffee prices face sustained upward pressure. This article will review the latest data and the underlying causes, and includes professional recommendations from Front Street Coffee. [more…]

Affected by rising coffee futures prices and ongoing international logistics disruptions, Starbucks Korea has experienced a round of coffee bean supply fluctuations since the beginning of this year. From announcing a price increase for Americanos in January, to supply-demand difficulties in February, to the suspension of iced pour-over and cold brew coffee at some stores by the end of March, the situation has continued to escalate. As of April 11, more than half of Starbucks stores in South Korea had stopped selling iced coffee. Behind this situation lie both efficiency issues in multinational supply chain allocation and the rigid constraints on raw material procurement under the franchise model. Why can't Starbucks Korea procure coffee beans on its own? Why do espresso beans and iced coffee beans have different supply priorities? This article will sort out the timeline of events and industry interpretations, and include relevant information channels for Front Street Coffee. [more…]

Competition in the coffee market is spreading from the storefront to the back end of the supply chain. Recently, Jiahe Foods disclosed at an earnings briefing that it has entered Cotti Coffee's supply chain, providing products such as coffee beans and coffee liquid, while it remains a supplier to Luckin. Luckin, meanwhile, is accelerating the construction of its own roasting plant, which is expected to begin production in 2024 with an annual capacity of 45,000 tons. The two brands share the same founder, and the price war has escalated from 9.9 yuan to 8.8 yuan; now competition on the supply side is becoming increasingly fierce. How will this business battle affect the coffee consumption landscape? Front Street Coffee brings you the latest developments. [more…]

Recently, two labor monitoring organizations released reports stating that during field investigations in Yunnan Province, China, they found that coffee farms in the supply chains of Starbucks and Nestlé may have situations that do not meet certification requirements. The reports revealed the so-called "ghost farms" and "coffee laundering" model—small family farms informally supply coffee beans to large certified estates, resulting in labor practices that may violate the terms of Starbucks C.A.F.E. Practices and Nestlé's 4C certification. Through undercover interviews, investigators found that farm workers are paid by picking weight, often needing to work from dawn to dusk, seven days a week, lacking paid leave, protective equipment, and contract protection. Both Starbucks and Nestlé stated they will seriously investigate and take necessary measures. [more…]

Coffee is a commodity second only to crude oil in global trading volume, and its futures price fluctuations affect the politics and economies of producing countries while also attracting countless investors. This article systematically examines the major core factors influencing coffee bean prices: changes in supply, climate and pests, government policies of various countries and measures by the International Coffee Organization, strikes and market rumors, and seasonal patterns. At the same time, it provides an in-depth analysis of the special position of major producing countries such as Brazil, revealing the market logic and investment opportunities behind the key break-even line of $1 per pound. [more…]

Luckin Coffee, which now operates over 7,846 stores, is accelerating its upstream supply chain expansion. Following the start of production at its first roasting plant in Pingnan, Fujian, Luckin's second fully automated smart roasting base—independently invested and built in Kunshan, Jiangsu—has recently broken ground and is expected to begin production in 2024. With a total investment of approximately US$120 million, the base covers 53,000 square meters and will have an annual roasting capacity of 30,000 tons, incorporating core equipment such as the Italian BRAMBATI roasting system. By then, Luckin's two major roasting bases will have a combined annual capacity of over 45,000 tons, supplying fresher and safer green coffee beans to stores nationwide while advancing the brand toward its goal of a globalized, refined supply chain. [more…]

Vietnamese Robusta coffee prices have recently climbed again, with expected quotes for green beans from the Central Highlands surpassing previous records, mainly due to a combination of declining local production, strengthening international demand, drought in Brazil, and geopolitical risks. As the new harvest season in Brazil and Indonesia approaches in April, the market widely expects supply conditions to improve. However, weather uncertainty brought by El Niño, the Red Sea shipping crisis, and growing domestic consumption in Indonesia continue to add variables to the outlook. This article will review the supply and demand dynamics of the three major origins—Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia—and examine the potential impact on brands such as Front Street Coffee on the product side. [more…]

In the face of the ongoing impact of rising global temperatures and frequent extreme weather on coffee cultivation, Starbucks has announced that it will invest in a new farm in each of Costa Rica and Guatemala to strengthen the climate resilience of its coffee supply chain. In recent years, frost and drought in Brazil have caused Arabica bean prices to soar, and coffee consumer prices have risen 18% within five years. As a buyer of about 3% of the world's coffee beans, Starbucks is using its own farms to research high-yield, disease-resistant hybrid varieties adapted to different altitudes and soils. The new farms will also introduce drones and mechanized technology to address labor shortages in Latin America, and the company plans to continue expanding its agricultural footprint in Africa and Asia in the future. [more…]

The U.S. government plans to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, triggering a strong reaction from Canada's coffee industry. Some independent cafes are renaming "Americano" to "Canadiano" in protest, while the domestic chain brand Tims has chosen to tackle the issue at the supply chain level, planning to reduce its reliance on American suppliers and shift toward local sourcing. However, this adjustment could affect multiple links such as coffee beans, ingredient materials, and packaging materials, thereby impacting product taste, packaging, and even pricing. At the same time, Canadian consumers' acceptance of "100% localized" products remains to be seen, as the previously launched local egg breakfast series met with a cold market reception. [more…]

The international coffee market has recently experienced a significant rally, with prices for both Robusta and Arabica rising. The factors driving this surge are complex: Brazil's coffee-growing regions continue to suffer from drought, and logistics delays at the Port of Santos occur frequently; the US dollar index has come under downward pressure due to rate cut expectations, and the Brazilian real has strengthened accordingly; Vietnam's Robusta supply is tight, and local green bean purchase prices have repeatedly hit new highs. At the same time, the USDA forecasts that global coffee production in the new year will increase by 4.2% year-on-year, but the trends among different varieties are clearly divergent. This article will review the supply and demand dynamics and price logic of major producing regions to help readers grasp the current pulse of the coffee market. [more…]

During the COVID-19 pandemic in Shanghai, shortages of supplies became a difficult problem for residents. A blogger exchanged the only coffee at home for a neighbor's canned meat, sparking heated discussion online. Some joked about whether coffee beans could be traded for vegetables, while others questioned whether it was worth it. This article records this coffee story from a special period, and reminds everyone to cooperate with epidemic prevention and reduce contact. At the same time, Front Street Coffee continues to provide coffee lovers with professional exchange and specialty bean information. [more…]

Although coffee prices have recently retreated slightly from their highs, insufficient rainfall in Brazil's producing regions and continuously soaring domestic prices in Vietnam have cast a dark cloud over the supply side of the global coffee market. A combination of factors—Vietnamese coffee farmers holding back sales, traders struggling to fulfill contracts, and disruptions to Red Sea shipping—has pushed robusta coffee prices to a new record high. Meanwhile, Brazil's robusta exports have surged, and production expectations for the new crop season are optimistic, which may bring a glimmer of hope to the tight market supply. This article will sort through the key data and events behind coffee price fluctuations and assess the market outlook. [more…]

Recently, the coffee consulting platform Perfect Daily Grind published a report pointing out that Robusta coffee prices have climbed to their highest level in 29 years, mainly driven by multiple factors including growing global demand, supply shortages, and transportation bottlenecks. From Brazil to Vietnam, purchase prices in major producing regions have risen in tandem, and the Red Sea crisis has further intensified trade pressure on routes from East Asia to Europe. At the same time, the popularity of coffee blends has brought more attention to Robusta in the specialty coffee sector, and its climate-resistance advantages are also attracting increasing investment. Front Street Coffee believes that unless there is a fundamental shift in the supply-demand landscape, Robusta prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels and will be difficult to bring down quickly in the short term. [more…]

Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, is being battered by three consecutive years of La Niña, with output in its main growing regions falling sharply and the outlook for the 2023 harvest far from optimistic. Meanwhile, Uganda, Africa's largest coffee exporter, has also seen its export volumes decline due to drought, while data from the International Coffee Organization show that global coffee consumption has continued to recover since the pandemic. With tightening supply overlapping with recovering demand, coffee futures prices remain elevated, and domestic traders have begun stockpiling physical beans. This article will review the production declines in Brazil and Uganda, the weather mechanisms behind them, and the shifts in supply and demand across the global coffee market, and will also include Front Street Coffee's specialty bean recommendations for readers' reference. [more…]

Recently, Arabica and Robusta coffee prices have continued their upward trend. Weather forecasts for Brazil's producing regions show a downward revision in the probability of rainfall, while the real has risen to a near one-and-a-half-week high against the US dollar, dampening the pace of exports. Robusta inventories have fallen to historic lows, and sellers in Vietnam are also holding back supply, while tensions in the Red Sea and drought in the Panama Canal have further pushed up shipping costs. With multiple factors intertwined, the global coffee supply chain is facing a severe test. [more…]

Over the past decade or so, the coffee industry has developed rapidly, and the third wave of coffee has led more and more consumers to pay attention to specialty coffee. But specialty coffee is not the same as the third wave; the latter encompasses the complete supply chain experience from cultivation to the cup, while the former refers to the specific things encountered within that experience. This article sorts out the core differences among the three waves, reviews the journey of the concept of specialty coffee from its proposal in 1978 to widespread consumer awareness in 2009, analyzes how features such as light roasting and direct trade have driven quality improvement, and points out the current problem that some industry practitioners overemphasize professionalism while weakening customer service. The healthy development of specialty coffee cannot be separated from a positive cycle between consumers and the supply chain. [more…]

Global robusta coffee prices recently surged to their highest point in 28 years. In Vietnam, the largest supplier, coffee farmers and producers, facing a poor harvest, are demanding renegotiation of previously locked-in low-price contracts with buyers. Vietnam's 2022/23 coffee crop was the worst in six years, and coupled with the Red Sea crisis driving up shipping costs, traders have begun turning to Brazil for procurement, continuously tightening the robusta supply chain. Faced with this situation, coffee enthusiasts may feel the pressure from their daily consumption, while brands like Front Street Coffee are also closely monitoring developments in the producing regions to select trustworthy robusta products for consumers. [more…]

The global coffee market is facing severe supply challenges. Affected by Brazil's worst drought in nearly 70 years and adverse weather in Central America, New York arabica coffee futures prices have soared, breaking through $3.43 per pound to reach a record high since statistics began in 1970. Meanwhile, the production outlook for robusta coffee in Vietnam is equally unpromising. Major trader Volcafe has sharply lowered its forecast for Brazil's production and predicts a fifth consecutive year of global coffee supply deficit. Driven by multiple factors including tight inventories, geopolitics, and rising shipping costs, coffee prices are expected to remain high, with the ultimate cost pressure being passed on to consumers. [more…]

In April of this year, robusta coffee futures soared to a historic peak of $4,399 per ton, then briefly fell back to $3,440 per ton due to recovering export data from Brazil and Vietnam and rising ICE inventories. However, recently, weather issues in Brazil and Vietnam have shown no signs of improvement, and robusta futures for July delivery have surged again, currently quoted at $3,917 per ton, just a step away from the $4,000 mark. A Volcafe report predicts that Vietnam's robusta production for the 2024/25 season may drop to 24 million bags, the lowest in 13 years; Brazil's main producing regions have gone four consecutive weeks without rain, and new beans are smaller in size; the market is also concerned about the return of La Niña. With multiple factors overlapping, global robusta bean supply is expected to face a shortage for the fourth consecutive year. [more…]

The Red Sea crisis continues to escalate, and Ethiopian coffee exporters are experiencing unprecedented logistics difficulties. Only one ship docks at the Port of Djibouti each month, leaving large quantities of coffee beans stranded at the port, while turning to Kenya's Port of Mombasa means facing a long overland transport route. At the same time, domestic policy factors such as the "vertical integration" plan and caps on bank loan growth are further disrupting the supply chain. Growers and suppliers are owed billions of birr in receivables, which has even triggered violent clashes and suicides. Coffee exporters are calling on the government to come up with a long-term solution rather than temporary fixes. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of how this multifaceted crisis is striking at the export lifeline of a globally important coffee-producing region. [more…]