The latest meteorological forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is expected to come to an end around April 2024. After a brief neutral phase, La Niña may form between June and August and persist through the second half of the year. Previously, El Niño brought extreme weather such as heavy rain, drought, and high temperatures to coffee-growing regions in Brazil, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and other places, causing reduced production and driving up international coffee prices. As La Niña takes over, southeastern Brazil may face reduced rainfall and the risk of frost, while Indonesia may experience heavy rainfall and even floods, and the coffee berry harvest may be hit again. Front Street Coffee will also continue to monitor the impact of climate change in producing regions on the coffee supply chain. [more…]

Brazil's 2024/25 coffee harvest is imminent, but sales progress is notably lagging behind previous years. Data from consultancy Safras&Mercado shows that as of March 12, only 11% of the new crop had been sold, far below the historical average of 25% for the same period. Among this, Arabica sold 14% (historical 30%), and Robusta only 6% (historical 15%). The slow sales are mainly due to high Robusta prices suppressing trader purchases, the spread between forward and spot prices prompting farmers to hold back sales, and the potential arrival of La Niña after El Niño ends, which could bring reduced rainfall and frost threats to the coffee-growing regions in the southeast. Meanwhile, reduced production in Vietnam and Indonesia is driving strong exports of Brazilian Robusta. [more…]

The El Niño phenomenon continues to disrupt global weather patterns, causing the production prospects of major coffee-producing countries to diverge. The United States Department of Agriculture recently released its assessment report on the 2023/24 coffee production of Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam, with the three countries showing different trends: Brazil's Robusta faces a decline in production, while Arabica is expected to see a recovery in growth; Colombia's production is rebounding due to improved climatic conditions, but import demand still exists; Vietnam, meanwhile, continues to decline due to unfavorable weather and farmers switching to other crops. Overall, El Niño is putting pressure on coffee production in Brazil and Vietnam, while Colombia has become one of the few beneficiaries. The following is the detailed data and analysis. [more…]

The lingering effects of El Niño in 2023 have not yet subsided, and La Niña may make a comeback in the summer of 2024, leaving global coffee-producing regions caught in a double bind of extreme weather. Drought during Brazil's flowering period, water shortages on Vietnam's highlands, coexisting floods and droughts in Africa, and the threat of hurricanes in Central America—the production outlook for major growing regions is shrouded in uncertainty. At the same time, rising demand for Robusta in European and American markets, combined with reduced output in several producing countries, has already triggered sharp fluctuations in international coffee prices. This article will examine how climate is disrupting the coffee supply chain and analyze the key variables shaping price trends in the second half of the year. [more…]

Since entering the dry season in November 2023, the El Niño phenomenon has continued to intensify drought conditions in Guatemala, triggering large-scale forest fires and severe shortages of hydroelectric power. Wildfires in the Agua Volcano region in southern Guatemala have affected the two major coffee-producing areas of Antigua and Acatenango, damaging more than 40 hectares of vegetation; meanwhile, the National Interconnected Power System has been in a state of emergency since March 18, with hydroelectric generation down 17% compared with the historical average, driving up operating costs for coffee processing plants. The drought in the Panama Canal has further lengthened fuel transportation cycles, putting additional pressure on the coffee industry chain. Guatemala is seeking relief by attracting investment and holding meetings on an economic action plan. This article will review the disaster data, the causes of the power crisis, and their cascading effects on coffee cultivation and processing. [more…]

Affected by the El Niño phenomenon, Colombia has been in a state of natural disaster since the beginning of this year. The drought, which persisted until April, caused the average water storage level of reservoirs nationwide to drop to 29.96% of normal, approaching the critical threshold of 27%, impacting both water supply and power generation. Although the country is rich in freshwater resources, problems such as low agricultural water use efficiency and serious pipeline leakage are prominent, with 70% of the nation's water resources used for crops such as coffee, bananas, and flowers. The capital, Bogotá, has already implemented water restrictions, and the government has not ruled out nationwide water rationing. Fortunately, the rainy season is expected to arrive in mid-to-late April, but coffee industry insiders warn that the heavy rainfall and low temperatures brought by the subsequent La Niña may affect coffee growth, and coffee farmers need to respond in advance. [more…]

Affected by El Niño, Vietnam is experiencing its worst drought in nearly a century, and agriculture in the Mekong Delta has been hit hard. As a major global coffee-producing region, Vietnam's robusta coffee is in its flowering season but faces a water shortage crisis, and spot prices have soared to more than double those of the same period last year. At the same time, the planting boom in high-return fruits such as durian and dragon fruit is further squeezing coffee-growing areas. This article will review the specific impact of the drought on Vietnam's coffee industry, current price trends, and the latest progress on China's emergency water replenishment from the Lancang River at Vietnam's request. Friends who like Vietnamese coffee may want to follow Front Street Coffee's upcoming product updates. [more…]

The ongoing El Niño phenomenon has continued to intensify recently, bringing high temperatures and drought to coffee-growing regions in Southeast Asia. Robusta coffee production in Indonesia and Vietnam has declined noticeably, and export prices have risen sharply as a result. Meanwhile, Arabica-producing countries such as Honduras in Central America and Kenya in Africa have shown strong export performance, with prices remaining stable. This article reviews changes in production, exports, and prices across major producing regions to help coffee enthusiasts grasp the current supply-demand dynamics and future trends of the global coffee market. [more…]

The latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture shows that Peru's coffee industry is gradually emerging from the shadow of El Niño. After facing severe challenges in the first quarter of the 2023/24 fiscal year, production has recovered to 3.95 million bags, achieving a 9% year-on-year increase. Looking ahead to the 2024/25 marketing year, Peru's coffee production and exports are expected to rise by 7% and 6% respectively, reaching 4.22 million bags and 4.07 million bags. International coffee prices remain elevated, encouraging coffee farmers to increase investment in cultivation and fertilizers, injecting momentum into the industry's recovery. Meanwhile, cooperation between Peru and China on the Chancay Port project has made new progress, creating favorable conditions for increased exports of coffee and other agricultural products to China in the future. Front Street Coffee will continue to monitor the origin dynamics and flavor performance of Peruvian coffee. [more…]

The latest data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) shows that the country's coffee production reached 1.28 million bags in November, up 21% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of positive production growth, while total coffee export value climbed 29% over the same period. Although cumulative production from January to November reached 10.1 million bags, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, the spot premium at origin has declined. Over the past three years, alternating shocks from La Niña and El Niño have caused continuous declines in Colombian coffee production, and cultivation costs have also risen. One estate owner revealed that the cost per 125-kilogram bag of coffee has risen from about $400 three years ago to around $600. As weather patterns shift toward El Niño, Colombian coffee production is benefiting, and the FNC expects production to recover to between 11.6 million and 12 million bags in 2024. [more…]

Recently, commercial vessels in the Red Sea region have been frequently attacked by Houthi forces, forcing shipping companies to suspend operations or take detours, significantly driving up transportation costs and time, with the coffee bean trade bearing the brunt. ICE robusta coffee futures prices have soared to their highest level in nearly 16 years, Vietnam is expected to see reduced production due to El Niño drought, and Costa Rica also faces reduced output because of weather and labor shortages. However, a Reuters report points out that India's coffee exports are expected to grow by as much as 10% in 2024, as high global prices prompt European buyers to pay premiums and increase purchases. Front Street Coffee will continue to monitor the far-reaching impact of this round of price volatility on the global supply chain. [more…]

Extreme weather triggered by El Niño is continuing to batter coffee-growing regions worldwide. After several Central American countries, African coffee-producing nations have not been spared either. Uganda saw its November coffee exports fall 4.8% year-on-year as heavy rains delayed harvesting and disrupted drying processes. Meanwhile, the European Union has officially rolled out its Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), requiring importers to trace the origin of commodities such as coffee and conduct due diligence, or else face fines or a ban on market access. This regulation has led European importers to scale back purchases from smallholder farmers in Africa, leaving roughly 5 million coffee-dependent farming households in Ethiopia facing the prospect of dwindling orders. Industry insiders point out that the high cost and difficulty of compliance could further drive up prices for EU consumers while undermining the actual effectiveness of forest protection. This article examines the dual pressures of weather and policy to outline the export and market challenges currently facing Africa's coffee industry. [more…]

Affected by extreme weather triggered by the El Niño phenomenon, Africa's major coffee-producing regions are undergoing a severe test. As Africa's largest coffee producer, Ethiopia's output for the 2022/23 fiscal year is expected to decline to 7.3 million bags, a decrease of about 1 million bags from previous expectations. The alternating onslaught of drought and floods has not only damaged infrastructure in the producing areas but also driven up transportation costs. At the same time, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)'s strict requirements for origin traceability make it difficult for smallholder farmers to comply, forcing export volumes to be revised down by 19%. Shrinking exports, compounded by the impact of the pandemic and civil war, have intensified the country's fiscal pressure, and it even faces the risk of sovereign debt default. International coffee futures prices, meanwhile, continue to fluctuate at high levels due to constrained supply, and market concerns about short-term supply are steadily mounting. [more…]

Although El Niño is expected to wrap up in April, its impact on global coffee-producing regions is far from over. Several countries in East Africa are being battered by both torrential rains and floods, with Kenya suffering especially devastating losses—at least 289 people have died and more than 280,000 have been forced to flee their homes. Worryingly, the hardest-hit areas happen to cover Kenya's main coffee-producing regions such as Nyeri, Nakuru, and Kiambu. With the critical flowering and fruiting stage now underway, this natural disaster has all but sealed the fate of a reduced harvest next season. Faced with the prospect of total crop failure, the Kenyan government has urgently allocated 4 billion shillings, while the International Finance Corporation, together with Absa Group, has injected US$60 million into coffee trading giant Volcafe in an effort to stabilize the East African coffee supply chain. Front Street Coffee will also continue to follow developments in the producing regions and bring coffee lovers the latest news. [more…]

As the world's fourth-largest coffee producer, Indonesia is facing severe climate challenges. From the relentless downpours brought by La Niña to the severe droughts triggered by El Niño, extreme weather has alternately battered coffee-growing regions, causing poor development of coffee flowers, withered leaves, and worsening pests and diseases. Industry insiders predict that Indonesia's total coffee production this season will plummet to less than 10 million bags, the lowest level in more than a decade. Smallholder farmers in low-altitude growing regions are bearing the brunt, with some even facing the prospect of a total crop failure. At the same time, soaring rice prices have prompted the government to encourage farmers to switch to rice cultivation, while the slow renewal of coffee trees further constrains any recovery in production capacity. Climate change could also lead to a sharp reduction in Indonesia's land suitable for coffee cultivation. Front Street Coffee will continue to follow subsequent developments in this growing region. [more…]

The latest report from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC) shows that the country's coffee production in February 2024 decreased by 6.2% year-on-year. Although export volume grew month-on-month, overall exports over the past 12 months fell by 3.1%. Despite having shaken off the effects of El Niño, La Niña weather is expected to arrive in June-August and may last throughout the second half of the year, bringing new challenges to coffee production. To this end, the FNC held a steering committee meeting with grower representatives from various regions to discuss preventive measures to safeguard coffee farmers' incomes. At the same time, the FNC launched an export platform, Cafix, aimed at reducing transportation costs and simplifying export procedures. Front Street Coffee continues to follow developments in Colombian coffee and bring the latest producing-region news to enthusiasts. [more…]

Recently, the coffee market has experienced a noticeable price increase, driven by a mix of extreme weather, new EU regulations, shipping disruptions, and geopolitical conflicts. The El Niño phenomenon has led to reduced production and exports in several coffee-producing countries, the EU Deforestation Regulation has made importers hesitant to move forward, and the drought in the Panama Canal along with armed threats in the Red Sea have extended shipping times. Add to that war and inflation suppressing consumption and high interest rates driving up trade costs, and coffee futures prices soared at one point. However, some positive signals have emerged recently: El Niño is expected to weaken after March-April 2024, and production and exports from producing countries may recover; meanwhile, the "Operation Prosperity Guardian" initiative has given shipping companies hope of returning to Red Sea routes. Does this mean coffee prices are likely to fall? This article will sort through the whole story and bring you Front Street Coffee's observations and recommendations. [more…]

The latest report from the World Meteorological Organization shows that El Niño is weakening, and La Niña may return in the second half of the year. This climate shift will bring markedly different effects to global agriculture: Australia, West Africa, and parts of Asia are expected to receive abundant rainfall, favoring the growth of crops such as wheat, palm oil, cocoa, and coffee; while the Americas may face drought, and Brazil's soybean, coffee, and corn-producing regions will come under pressure from reduced yields. At the same time, international prices for coffee, cocoa, and wheat have already remained high for a sustained period, and if adverse climate factors intensify, agricultural product prices may rise further. In recent years, Brazil has vigorously developed robusta coffee, with production expected to reach 21 million bags in 2024, and it is expected to surpass Vietnam in the 2027/28 season to become the world's largest robusta-producing country. In addition, La Niña may also increase Atlantic hurricane activity, threatening energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico and thereby driving up crude oil and shipping costs. [more…]

A recent Indonesian coffee industry report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that Indonesia's coffee production in 2024/25 is expected to recover to 10.9 million bags, of which Robusta is projected to reach 9.5 million bags. However, the reality is not so optimistic: since the beginning of this year, Indonesia has frequently suffered natural disasters such as floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions, and Sumatra's Robusta exports in May plunged 54% year-on-year. With the aftermath of El Niño still lingering and the threat of La Niña approaching, coupled with rising domestic consumption and exporters holding back sales, the supply outlook for Indonesian Robusta is full of uncertainties. This article will review production, exports, climate, and market dynamics, and include relevant recommendations from Front Street Coffee. [more…]

A recent coffee industry report released by Indonesia shows that after multiple natural disasters including El Niño-induced drought, floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions, the country's coffee production fell to 9.7 million bags in the 2023/24 season. However, after entering the harvest season, actual data came in better than expected, and production is expected to rebound to 10.9 million bags in the 2024/25 season, an increase of 12.3%. Of this, Robusta production stands at 9.5 million bags and Arabica at 1.4 million bags. Although export volume is projected to rise from 4.3 million bags to 6 million bags, issues such as the La Niña phenomenon, rising fertilizer prices, and farmers' insufficient technical skills still bring uncertainty to the industry's recovery. [more…]