How are weather and EU rules affecting African coffee production?
El Nino driven heavy rain has hit African coffee growers. Uganda delayed its harvest and disrupted drying, and the Uganda Coffee Development Authority reported November exports of 425,525 bags of 60 kilograms, down 4.8 percent year on year. Uganda is Africa's largest coffee exporter, followed by Ethiopia, and coffee earns the country close to one billion dollars a year in hard currency.
The EU Deforestation Regulation adds a second pressure. It requires importers to trace origin and run due diligence on commodities including coffee, or face fines and market bans. European buyers have responded by cutting purchases from African smallholders, and roughly five million coffee-dependent households in Ethiopia could see orders disappear. Compliance costs are high, which may raise EU consumer prices without clearly improving forest protection.
Extreme weather triggered by the El Niño phenomenon is continuing to batter global coffee-producing regions. After multiple countries in Central America, African coffee-producing nations have also been unable to escape its impact. Uganda delayed its harvest and disrupted its drying process due to heavy rains, with coffee exports falling 4.8% year-on-year in November. Meanwhile, the EU has officially introduced the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), requiring importers to conduct origin traceability and due diligence on commodities such as coffee, or face fines or market bans. This regulation has prompted European importers to scale back purchases from smallholder farmers in Africa, leaving approximately 5 million coffee-dependent farming households in Ethiopia facing the prospect of vanishing orders. Industry insiders point out that compliance costs are high and the difficulty is considerable, which could further drive up prices for EU consumers while undermining the actual effectiveness of forest protection. This article examines the dual pressures of weather and policy, outlining the export and market challenges currently facing Africa's coffee industry.
Affected by the El Niño phenomenon, coffee production in Africa has declined. Previously, several coffee-producing countries in Central America had already experienced extreme weather such as droughts or floods due to this climate phenomenon, and coffee output in Brazil and Colombia was also significantly impacted.
African countries have likewise not been able to stay out of it. According to a recent Reuters report, state regulatory authorities revealed that due to heavy rains increasing rainfall, the harvest period was delayed and the drying process was also disrupted, causing Uganda's November coffee exports to fall 4.8% compared with the same period last year. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) indicated in a report that the total volume for the month was 425,525 bags (60 kg each). Uganda is Africa's largest coffee exporter, followed by Ethiopia, and income from the coffee crop is an important source of hard currency for the country, generating nearly $1 billion annually through coffee exports.
Previously, the EU issued the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which explicitly stipulates that no individual or company may sell products involving deforestation on the EU market, covering categories such as coffee and cocoa. The legislation requires operators to conduct due diligence on products and trace the origin of the goods they sell to confirm that they do not involve deforestation or forest degradation; otherwise, they will face a series of penalties including fines, restrictions, or export bans.
For this reason, companies importing coffee beans into the EU have recently begun reducing purchases from smallholder farmers in Africa and other regions, mainly because of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The law prohibits the sale of goods linked to forest destruction. According to industry sources, bringing African countries into compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will lead to higher costs and is difficult to enforce.
In recent months, coffee orders from Ethiopia have been gradually drying up, and about 5 million farming households in the country depend on the coffee crop for their livelihoods. Purchasing strategies adopted by companies before the law takes effect may worsen poverty among small-scale farmers, drive up purchase prices for EU consumers, and also weaken the EU's original intention of reducing impacts on forest protection.
An executive at an importer said that in the future it will be impossible to purchase Ethiopian coffee in large quantities, because the coffee beans currently ordered have already been certified and can enter coffee products sold in the EU in 2025. Although the final implementing act of the law has not yet been finalized, at this stage it must comply with the requirements of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
