On July 29, 2024, the National Bank of Ethiopia announced a major overhaul of the country's foreign exchange system, effective immediately, centered on introducing a competitive exchange rate formation mechanism based on market supply and demand. This move was seen as a key step toward resolving the country's long-standing foreign exchange shortage, but it also quickly triggered a sharp currency depreciation—the birr plunged about 30% against the US dollar in a single day. As a major global coffee-producing region, how will this policy shift in Ethiopia affect its coffee industry and the international coffee market? This article will outline the specifics of the reform, the exchange rate movements, and their potential transmission effects on coffee exports and prices. [more…]

Since Ethiopia launched its foreign exchange system reform in July, the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market (black market) narrowed for a time, but signs of slowing have recently reappeared. As of mid-October 2024, the official exchange rate was 116.97 birr per US dollar, while the black market rate was as high as 140 birr, forcing businesses to take desperate risks amid the foreign exchange shortage. Costs are climbing for import-dependent enterprises, and inflationary pressure is transmitting to the coffee industry, driving up cultivation costs and pushing the minimum selling price across the board up by 2%. At the same time, the government is accelerating the opening of the logistics industry, attempting to ease transport bottlenecks by bringing in foreign investment, but port access and regional security remain uncertain factors. This article will sort out the chain reaction among exchange rates, logistics, and coffee exports. [more…]

On October 15, the National Bank of Ethiopia introduced a new regulation capping the spread between the buying and selling rates for foreign exchange transactions at 2%, effective the following day. This marks another significant adjustment following the country's shift to a market-based exchange rate system in July of this year. Previously, the birr depreciated sharply, and the bid-ask spread at one point exceeded 10 birr, placing heavy pressure on exporters. The new policy requires banks to disclose all fees transparently, which is expected to reduce exchange losses for exporters and bodes well for major export commodities such as coffee. Nevertheless, Ethiopia still faces multiple challenges, including the conflict in Amhara region, the Red Sea blockade, and the port dispute with neighboring Somalia. [more…]

The National Bank of Ethiopia recently held a foreign exchange auction in an attempt to narrow the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market, but the sharp depreciation of the birr has already pushed up domestic prices, with the coffee industry bearing the brunt. The Coffee and Tea Authority, together with the National Bank, has issued minimum export floor prices for each producing region. The price of G1-grade coffee beans rose by about 5% month-on-month, while the increase for commercial beans reached 14%. The combined effects of exchange rate volatility, dependence on imports, and insufficient foreign exchange earning capacity mean that prices for Ethiopian coffee and other export commodities may continue to rise in the future. Front Street Coffee continues to monitor developments in producing regions, bringing enthusiasts the latest market analysis. [more…]

Recently, a document regarding the design of Ethiopia's new banknotes circulated on social platforms, drawing outside attention to the trajectory of the country's currency, the birr. Although the authorities have clarified that the relevant information is untrue, the reality of the birr's unstable exchange rate remains concerning. Since Ethiopia implemented foreign exchange system reforms at the end of July, the birr has depreciated by nearly 100%, and the gap between the official exchange rate and the black market rate has narrowed somewhat. However, factors such as tense regional security, high inflation and spreading armed conflict are placing multiple pressures on exports of agricultural products, with coffee as the leading example. Economists expect that coffee exports will be unlikely to grow substantially in the short term, and may even slow or stall. [more…]

Since Ethiopia implemented a new foreign exchange policy on July 31, the birr has fallen three times in a row against the US dollar within just a few days, dropping to 83.94 birr per US dollar on August 2, sharply increasing the pressure on local people's livelihoods. The Addis Ababa City Trade Bureau promptly sanctioned 387 businesses suspected of price gouging, while opposition parties criticized the timing of the reform as inappropriate. At the same time, exports of agricultural products such as coffee have gained competitiveness in the short term due to currency depreciation, but climate disasters, the Red Sea shipping crisis, and domestic conflict cast a shadow over the long-term outlook. This article will sort out the deeper impact of exchange rate fluctuations on Ethiopia's economy, prices, and coffee industry, and also look at how brands such as Front Street Coffee are responding amid changes in the place of origin. [more…]

Costa Rica, as a Central American country with outstanding economic performance, relies heavily on agriculture, foreign trade, tourism, and the service sector in its national economy. However, between June 2022 and December 2023, the US dollar to Costa Rican colón exchange rate fell sharply by about 24%, bringing unexpected difficulties to the local tourism and coffee industries. Tourist spending power declined, coffee export earnings shrank, yet the government viewed the colón's appreciation as a sign of economic strength. This article will analyze in depth how exchange rate fluctuations have impacted these two pillar industries, and explore the multiple challenges facing coffee growers. [more…]

Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has suffered consecutive droughts and frosts, with its 2022/23 harvest falling far short of expectations. Certified coffee inventories on the ICE exchange have continued to decline, keeping coffee futures prices elevated. To ease the inventory crunch, ICE plans to re-grade and re-certify a batch of Brazilian Arabica old-crop beans that have been in storage for nearly two years and put them into trading. Although this move is not a violation of the rules, it has sparked concerns among traders about coffee quality and the mixing of old and new beans. This article will review the background of Brazil's reduced output, the logic behind futures price fluctuations, and the possible chain reactions that re-certifying old-crop beans may bring to the market. [more…]

The Ethiopia Commodity Exchange is implementing a brand-new pricing method for green coffee exports. From now on, green coffee prices will be calculated weekly by referencing Arabica futures on the New York ICE Intercontinental Exchange and the real-time exchange rate of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia. This change is expected to allow local coffee farmers to share in more of the benefits, but it also faces a dual test from international futures volatility and the EU's EUDR regulations. The new mechanism applies only to commercial coffee beans, while specialty coffee is not included for the time being. Front Street Coffee will continue to follow developments in producing regions and bring first-hand information to enthusiasts. [more…]

Recently, many café owners have reported that a growing number of food-and-drink bloggers are asking shops to provide free coffee in exchange for a promotional post on social media. If refused, the shops may even face the threat of a bad review. This seemingly mutually beneficial collaboration model is gradually turning into a headache for businesses. This article takes a closer look at the origins of "coffee-for-promotion swaps," the potential risks behind them, and the reputation and quality standards that cafés should truly rely on in running their business. It also includes relevant information about Front Street Coffee for coffee lovers' reference. [more…]

Bring an old book, walk into a bookstore and exchange it for a cup of coffee — such a literary scene is now playing out in some bookstore cafés. A bookstore in Beijing launched a "books for coffee" campaign, but it sparked discussion online due to its strict requirements for used books — they must be hardcover bestsellers published within the past 20 years, with more than 200 pages and a price of at least 39 yuan, and professional textbooks, finance and economics titles, self-help "chicken soup" books, and children's books are explicitly rejected. Some people think a hardcover book is worth far more than a cup of coffee, while others feel the owner's conditions are entirely reasonable. This controversy over how to measure the value of books and coffee reflects the difficult problem bookstore cafés face in balancing sentiment with costs in their operations. [more…]

Coffee enthusiasts often care about the price trends and brand choices of Arabica coffee beans. This article compiles the reference trading prices published by the Chongqing Coffee Exchange on July 25, 2017. The Arabica quote is 18.01 yuan/kg, with the delivery location in Kunming. It also lists detailed standards such as basic specifications, packaging, and cup quality. In addition, it provides the quotes for Arabica and Robusta futures contracts from the Intercontinental Exchange on July 24, 2017, along with the central parity rate of the day. Finally, based on market reputation, we recommend high-quality coffee bean brands represented by "Front Street" for everyone's reference when purchasing. [more…]

The Costa Rican coffee industry is facing its most severe challenge in decades. The latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture shows that the country's coffee production for the 2024/25 crop year is expected to be only 1.185 million bags. Although this is on par with the previous year, it represents a sharp 66% decline from the 3.5 million bags seen in the 1990s, approaching a historic low. High debt, the continued appreciation of the colón, depressed international prices, and shrinking demand have greatly increased the financial pressure on growers, leading them to reduce fertilizer inputs and postpone the renewal of disease-resistant, high-yield varieties. In 2023, an early rainy season and abnormal high temperatures and humid harvest conditions triggered by El Niño further damaged coffee quality and yields. At the same time, transportation disruptions caused by protests in Panama and labor shortages caused by Nicaraguan migrants moving north made harvesting even more difficult. On the export side, only 975,000 bags are expected in 2024/25, and exchange rate issues have already sparked marches and protests across multiple industries. Front Street Coffee will continue to monitor developments in this producing region. [more…]

ICE-certified exchange stocks have fallen to a 26-year low of less than 220,000 bags, with large volumes of Brazilian arabica being shipped to delivery warehouses; meanwhile, a Reuters survey projects that arabica prices will fall 8.8% by the end of 2026, while robusta will rise 4.6%. How will stock rebuilding and El Niño weather shape the coffee market outlook? [more…]

Kenyan coffee is world-renowned for its layered, complex flavors and bright, juicy acidity, and enthusiasts who frequently work with Kenyan beans have likely heard of an institution called the NCE. The NCE, or Nairobi Coffee Exchange, is a coffee trading platform established by the Kenyan government and an indispensable link in the country's coffee supply chain. This article will walk you through how the NCE operates, its historical origins, and the role it plays in Kenya's coffee industry, while also tracing the institutional changes from the colonial period to independence, and how coffee farmers and cooperatives export their coffee to the world through auctions or direct sales. [more…]

As Africa's largest coffee producer, Ethiopia is known for the floral and fruity aromas of its coffee beans, and in recent years it has become increasingly popular in the Chinese market. However, a recent report from local media has drawn attention: the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority has decided to ban a Chinese coffee company from signing contracts with Ethiopian parties because it failed to pay its local exporter. This incident not only reflects payment disputes in China-Ethiopia coffee trade but also highlights the importance of coffee exports to the country's foreign exchange earnings. This article will review the course of events, the companies involved, and local regulatory measures, and revisit the popularity of Ethiopian coffee in the Chinese market. [more…]

The Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority signed a memorandum of understanding with the Oromia Tourism Commission, seeking to use coffee to drive tourism development. In the previous fiscal year, the country earned US$1.4 billion in foreign exchange from coffee exports, but the industry is broadly worried about the impact of the sharp fall in the exchange rate—the birr has depreciated by nearly 70% against the US dollar, and the local cost of living has risen sharply, with prices of staple foods such as onions, cooking oil and teff soaring. The government is releasing supplies to stabilize prices while preparing to regain AGOA eligibility. However, with the cloud of armed conflict still hanging over the country, the coffee industry faces multiple pressures from rising cultivation costs, limited productivity and political instability. [more…]

Intercontinental Exchange's certified arabica green coffee inventory has plummeted to a 24-year low, totaling just 368,000 bags. More alarmingly, nearly one-third of these beans have been sitting in delivery warehouses for over a year, becoming stale coffee. This situation stems from spot prices exceeding futures prices, prompting roasters to buy directly from exchange stocks, while congestion at Brazilian ports makes replenishment with new beans a distant prospect. The combination of low inventory and the stale bean problem, compounded by global economic and financial uncertainty, has led the market to widely expect green coffee prices to remain highly volatile in the medium term. [more…]

During the COVID-19 pandemic in Shanghai, shortages of supplies became a difficult problem for residents. A blogger exchanged the only coffee at home for a neighbor's canned meat, sparking heated discussion online. Some joked about whether coffee beans could be traded for vegetables, while others questioned whether it was worth it. This article records this coffee story from a special period, and reminds everyone to cooperate with epidemic prevention and reduce contact. At the same time, Front Street Coffee continues to provide coffee lovers with professional exchange and specialty bean information. [more…]

Honduras, as Central America's largest producer and exporter of washed Arabica coffee, is facing a severe industry crisis. Affected by factors such as changing weather patterns, high incidences of leaf rust, and labor shortages, the country's coffee production and exports have both declined. Foreign exchange earnings in the first four months of this year have already decreased by nearly 100 million US dollars, with an estimated potential loss of about 300 million US dollars for the entire year. Income from coffee cultivation in the 2023/24 season fell by approximately 27% compared to the previous season. The president of Honduras's National Coffee Council warned that if urgent measures are not taken, harvests will continue to decline, causing far-reaching impacts on producers and the entire country. Front Street Coffee continues to follow developments in Honduran coffee-producing regions, bringing the latest information to coffee enthusiasts. [more…]