Why are certified arabica coffee stocks so low?
Certified green arabica coffee stocks on the Intercontinental Exchange have fallen to a 24-year low of 368,000 bags, each about 60 kilograms. In October alone, US ICE arabica stocks dropped by 61,912 bags and European ICEU robusta stocks by 4,050 bags. Spot prices sit above futures prices, so many roasters buy directly from exchange stocks instead of the open market.
Storage age adds another problem: of the 368,000 bags, at least 118,000 have sat in delivery warehouses for over a year and about 68,000 even longer, meaning nearly a third is old crop. No coffee is currently awaiting certification, and port congestion in Brazil delays fresh supply. Combined with financial uncertainty, the market expects arabica coffee bean prices to stay volatile.
Intercontinental Exchange's certified green arabica coffee stocks have plummeted to their lowest level in 24 years, totaling just 368,000 bags. Even more concerning, nearly one-third of these beans have been sitting in delivery warehouses for over a year, turning into old crop. This situation stems from spot prices being higher than futures prices, prompting roasters to buy directly from exchange stocks, while port congestion in Brazil makes replenishment with new crop a distant prospect. The combination of low stocks and the old-bean problem, coupled with global economic and financial uncertainty, has led the market to widely expect green coffee prices to remain highly volatile in the medium term.
On November 3, multiple media outlets reported that certified green arabica coffee stocks on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have continued to decline, now falling to their lowest point in 24 years—a phenomenon that has drawn widespread attention in the coffee industry.
According to data from Coffee Financial Network, certified green coffee stocks on the futures exchange currently total 368,000 bags, each weighing about 60 kilograms. In October alone, arabica green coffee stocks on ICE in the United States fell by 61,912 bags, while robusta green coffee stocks on ICEU in Europe decreased by 4,050 bags.
Arabica coffee stock levels from 2017 to present
The report analysis states that the reason for such depressed certified stocks is that prices in the coffee spot market are actually higher than ICE futures prices (the "C price"). Because spot market prices are highly volatile, many roasters prefer to buy green coffee directly from futures exchange stocks in order to secure more favorable prices.
Beyond the issue of stock volume, the prolonged storage of green coffee in warehouses has also drawn market attention. It is reported that of the 368,000 bags in stock, at least 118,000 bags have been stored in delivery warehouses for over a year, and about 68,000 bags for even longer. This means that nearly one-third of the coffee in stock is already old crop.
Storage duration statistics for certified arabica coffee beans
However, the exchange currently has no coffee awaiting certification, indicating that stocks will be difficult to increase in the short term. Among the factors involved, the recent port congestion in Brazil is the main influence.
According to media reports, Brazil's agricultural exports hit a record high, leading to insufficient supply of transport trucks and containers, which in turn forced a large batch of green coffee exports to be delayed. Affected by inefficient logistics, Brazil's coffee supply to the world has also been restricted, and arabica coffee futures prices have seen a short-term rebound—a trend that may continue until port transportation returns to normal.
Given the current situation and the market's exposure to instability in the global economy and finance, it is widely believed that large fluctuations in green coffee prices will persist in the medium term.
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