Why Is Coffee Production in Vietnam Under Threat?

Vietnam's robusta coffee production is under serious strain. The World Meteorological Organization warned that extreme weather is hitting Asia hard, with parts of South Asia above 45°C. In Vietnam's growing regions, persistent heat has triggered drought, reservoirs are drying and cracking, and cotton bollworms are spreading quickly. Farmers are being told to irrigate more often, but irrigation water is largely unavailable, and coffee trees in the fruiting stage need more of it.

The timing is awkward for the wider market. According to the International Coffee Organization, global coffee exports rose 8.1 percent in March 2024, while coffee futures prices kept falling, so production prospects and market trends are moving in opposite directions. Rain expected in May could ease the drought, but five provinces, including Quang Tri and Gia Lai, have already issued Level 2 drought warnings, leaving the size of the coming crop uncertain.

The World Meteorological Organization recently issued a warning that frequent extreme weather is severely impacting Asia. China, Dubai, and other places have been hit by heavy rain and floods, while South Asian countries such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Indonesia are sweltering under high temperatures, with many areas exceeding 45°C. As an important global coffee-producing region, Vietnam's robusta coffee is facing a double blow from drought and pests—reservoirs are drying up, irrigation water sources are depleted, and cotton bollworms are spreading rapidly. Coffee farmers are forced to increase irrigation frequency but have no water available. Although rain is expected in May to ease the drought, the latest data from the International Coffee Organization shows that global coffee exports grew 8.1% in March 2024, while coffee futures prices continue to decline, creating a subtle contrast between production prospects and market trends.

Recently, the World Meteorological Organization issued a warning, pointing out that extreme weather events are occurring frequently, and climate change is causing severe damage to the Asian region.

Currently, some countries and regions in Asia, including cities such as China and Dubai, have experienced extreme weather such as heavy rain, strong winds, and floods, with severe damage. Meanwhile, in South Asia, several countries including Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Indonesia have experienced high temperatures, with some areas even exceeding 45°C.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, Asia is the region most severely affected globally, with floods and storms causing the highest casualties and economic losses worldwide, while the impact of high temperatures is even more severe, especially for crops such as coffee.

In Vietnam's robusta coffee-growing areas, high temperatures have persisted recently, and the heat has also triggered regional droughts. This has caused coffee trees in the fruiting stage to require a significant increase in irrigation water, but water resources are currently very scarce.

Affected by drought and rapidly rising temperatures, the riverbeds of many reservoirs have shown obvious drying and cracking, and some reservoirs have even seen hundreds of thousands of fish die. Five provinces in Vietnam, including Quang Tri, Quang Ngai, Binh Thuan, Phu Yen, and Gia Lai, have issued Level 2 drought warnings.

According to local coffee farmers, in normal years coffee trees usually only need to be irrigated 5 times, but this season many farmers have already irrigated 7 times and believe an 8th irrigation is needed; however, insufficient water resources have made this impossible.

Wells and groundwater resources used for irrigation are gradually being depleted. Under severe water shortage and extreme high temperatures, coffee trees experience nutritional imbalances. In addition, the hot and dry environment is conducive to the reproduction and spread of certain pests, mainly cotton bollworms, which damage flowers and fruits on the plants, ultimately leading to reduced yields.

Recently, some coffee trees in Vietnam have shown signs of withering, with leaves turning yellow and falling off. In addition to excessive drought, some have also been attacked by pests.

According to reports, Gia Lai Province, a major coffee-producing area in central Vietnam, is currently suffering from cotton bollworm infestation. The situation has not yet been effectively controlled, and the pests are spreading rapidly, making the current situation very serious.

However, by May the weather will improve slightly, and rain is expected in Vietnam. The Vietnamese meteorological department stated that rainfall in May may be around 2.27 millimeters, which is expected to ease the current drought.

Meanwhile, the International Coffee Organization recently released statistics for recent months: global coffee exports in March 2024 increased by 8.1%, reaching 12.99 million bags. Therefore, although future production expectations for several producing countries are not optimistic, coffee futures prices have been declining in recent days.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.