How is Colombian coffee production recovering this year?
Colombia's coffee production rose 21% year-on-year to 12.41 million bags in the 12 months from last December to November, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia. November output alone hit 1.76 million bags, up 37%. Improved weather, renewed disease-resistant varieties, and higher global prices drove the recovery, though export prospects face trade and logistics risks.
Farmers renovated 90,000 hectares this year, the strongest record in 11 years. Production and export gains lifted the value of the harvest to US$14.2 billion, up 26%, with fourth-quarter growth of 108%. After La Niña, El Niño, drought, and wildfires, rainfall returned in October. Output still cannot fill the gap left by Brazil's smaller crop, so coffee production by country remains tight and prices are expected to stay high.
Latest data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia shows the country's coffee industry is experiencing a notable recovery, with production over the past 12 months rising 21% year-on-year to 12.41 million bags. This growth is attributed to improved weather, the renewal of disease-resistant varieties, and rising global coffee prices. However, trade policy uncertainty and logistics bottlenecks are casting a shadow over export prospects. Tariff measures that may be implemented after the new U.S. president takes office, along with issues such as port congestion and container shortages, could put pressure on Colombian coffee exports. Despite the recovery in production, it is still not enough to fill the gap left by Brazil's reduced output, and coffee prices are expected to remain high. Follow origin developments to learn the latest trends in the coffee market.
According to data released by the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC), the country's coffee production in November reached 1.76 million bags (60 kg each), a sharp increase of 37% compared with the same period last year.
The head of the FNC pointed out that this result was mainly due to improved climatic conditions and the continuous replacement of disease-resistant varieties in recent years. This year, a total of 90,000 hectares of coffee fields were renovated, the best record in the past 11 years. In the 12-month period from last December to November this year, Colombia's total coffee production reached 12.41 million bags, up 21% year-on-year. At the same time, the dual increase in production and exports drove the value of the coffee harvest up to US$14.2 billion, an increase of 26%, with growth of 108% in the fourth quarter alone.
Over the past three years, Colombia's coffee industry has faced multiple challenges, with production remaining persistently low. In 2023, affected by the alternating La Niña and El Niño phenomena, coffee production declined further, and planting costs continued to rise.
From August to September this year, the country also suffered from drought and wildfires. Fortunately, rainfall returned from October onward, and weather conditions have since stabilized, with coffee production and exports recovering accordingly. Coupled with higher global coffee prices, growers' incomes have increased, allowing more funds to be invested in farm renovation and upgrading.
The Colombian government has also recently increased its support for agriculture. Banco de Colombia earlier announced an investment of 22 billion pesos to support agricultural development and help farmers cope with extreme weather. The FNC also cooperated with Starbucks to distribute 55.7 million coffee seedlings resistant to rust and berry disease to local coffee farmers, helping to renovate coffee plots and enhance long-term productivity.
However, traders are beginning to worry that after the new U.S. president Trump takes office in January next year, Colombia may face stricter trade policies toward the United States, and tariff measures may push up export costs. The United States is the main export destination for Colombian coffee, accounting for 29.2% of its total export sales, mainly importing commodities such as fuel, gold, flowers, and coffee.
According to an analysis by a Colombian service logistics manager, if protectionist measures and tariff adjustments are implemented in trade between the two countries, Colombia's merchandise sales to the United States could decrease by 15% in 2025, while export costs would rise and market competitiveness would weaken, with the agricultural and manufacturing industries bearing the brunt.
Logistics is also facing threats, with the main problems being container shortages and port congestion. The president of the National Association of Coffee Exporters of Colombia (Asoexport) said that roads in many places had previously been blocked by truck drivers' strikes and blockades, affecting domestic transportation and logistics. In addition, geopolitical tensions and the Red Sea crisis have disrupted shipping, causing congestion at ports in many countries, and Colombia has not been spared either, with port congestion and container shortages becoming increasingly serious.
These factors have seriously affected Colombia's coffee exports. At present, large quantities of coffee are piling up at port terminals, and many exporters are facing cost overruns and reduced efficiency due to additional storage, demurrage, and pre-stacking fees.
Despite the many difficulties, the market remains optimistic about Colombia's coffee industry, with both production and supply increasing. However, Colombia's increased output is not enough to make up for the gap caused by Brazil's reduced production, and coffee prices will remain high.
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The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
