How the Mpox Alert Affects the Coffee Industry in East Africa

The World Health Organization declared on August 15 that the mpox variant spreading in Africa is a public health emergency of international concern, its highest global alert. The outbreak is centered on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with more than 14,000 infections and 524 deaths this year, and a new variant has reached neighboring countries. East Africa, a core coffee region, is exposed to the fallout.

Smallholder farms dominate the area, and cross-border bean sourcing and trade depend on movement of people and goods. An outbreak can slow that flow, disrupt processing plants short on labor, and put coffee production and quality at risk of decline. The variant carries a higher fatality rate than the 2022 global strain, so industry watchers are tracking how the alert develops.

The World Health Organization announced on August 15 that the mpox variant outbreak spreading rapidly in Africa constitutes a "public health emergency of international concern," the highest-level global epidemic alert under the International Health Regulations. This outbreak is centered on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the number of infections this year has exceeded 14,000, with 524 deaths, and a new variant has emerged and is spreading to neighboring countries. Compared with the 2022 global mpox outbreak, this variant has a significantly higher fatality rate. What coffee industry professionals should be alert to is that the outbreak has already affected some East African countries, and East Africa is the core region of Africa's coffee industry. The smallholder-dominated cultivation model, cross-border bean-sourcing and trade activities may all be hindered by the outbreak, coffee production and quality face the risk of decline, and processing plants may also encounter labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. Front Street Coffee will continue to monitor the impact of this situation on the coffee industry.

According to media reports, on August 15, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced at a press conference that the mpox variant outbreak spreading rapidly in Africa has constituted a "public health emergency of international concern," the highest-level global epidemic alert under the framework of the International Health Regulations.

The WHO Director-General pointed out that over the past decade the Democratic Republic of the Congo has continued to report mpox cases, with a steadily rising trend, and since last year the number of reported cases in the country has increased substantially. So far this year, the cumulative number of reported cases has exceeded the total for all of last year, with more than 14,000 infections, of which 524 people died.

On the other hand, a new mpox variant has been discovered in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and is spreading rapidly. At the same time, this variant has also been found in some neighboring countries of the Congo that had never previously reported mpox cases, indicating that the virus still has the potential to spread further to other parts of Africa and even globally. The WHO calls on African countries to immediately take urgent action to contain the continued spread of the mpox outbreak across the African continent.

According to data provided by the Africa CDC, 16 countries and regions in Africa have now reported more than 17,500 suspected and confirmed mpox cases, with most cases and deaths concentrated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Compared with 2023, the number of mpox cases reported in Africa this year has increased by 160%.

It is understood that after the first human case of mpox virus infection was discovered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 1970, the virus mainly circulated in western and central Africa, with transmission routes including person-to-person contact as well as transmission through infected animals and contaminated objects. In May 2022, more than 100 countries and regions around the world reported mpox cases, and in July 2022 the WHO declared the mpox outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern," a status that was not lifted until May 2023.

However, as the virus continues to spread and evolve, mpox has differentiated into two genetic clades, among which the clade associated with the latest outbreak has a higher fatality rate. The 2022 mpox outbreak affected nearly 100,000 people worldwide and caused about 200 deaths; this outbreak is more deadly, with more than 500 deaths reported so far. The mortality rate of this variant is close to 3%, about 15 times that of the 2022 outbreak, with women and children under 15 particularly at high risk of death.

Although the current mpox outbreak is mainly circulating in Central and West Africa, it has already spread to some East African countries; for example, Kenya has reported mpox cases. East Africa is an important coffee-producing region in Africa, and this mpox outbreak will deal a severe blow to the development of the coffee industry.

Most coffee-producing countries in East Africa are dominated by smallholder farmers, with coffee trees planted around their homes. Once infected with mpox, given the virus's 6-to-13-day incubation period, coffee plants will be left unattended during these days, leading to a decline in coffee yield and quality.

In addition, African coffee has always attracted many coffee traders and bean hunters, but the mpox outbreak may bring potential dangers, hinder cross-border trade, and local coffee processing plants may also face difficulties such as labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, seriously hindering the development of the coffee industry in the African region.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.