How does Brazil's frost affect coffee growth and prices?

A strong cold wave has swept central-southern Brazil since last week, pushing temperatures below zero. Southern Minas Gerais broke Brazil's record low, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul saw snow and freezing rain, and the Port of Santos suspended cargo operations. Coffee futures for both arabica and robusta rose sharply.

The new harvest season is near its end, so the market now worries about frost damage to this year's crop and to coffee growth in the 2025/26 season, mainly in Minas Gerais highlands planted with arabica. Santa Catarina recorded -6.8°C and Rio Grande do Sul -5.3°C, while São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro had their coldest August in 13 years.

Since last week, a strong cold wave has continued to sweep through the central-southern region of Brazil. Temperatures in many places plummeted below zero, and the mountainous area in southern Minas Gerais even broke Brazil's record for the lowest temperature. Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul saw snow and freezing rain one after another, and the Port of Santos was forced to suspend cargo operations due to rough sea conditions. Currently, Brazil's new coffee harvest season is nearing its end, but the market is widely worried that frost will impact this year's crop and coffee growth in the 2025/26 season, especially in the mountainous areas of Minas Gerais, which are mainly planted with Arabica. Affected by this, Arabica and Robusta coffee futures prices have soared sharply in recent days. Front Street Coffee will also continue to monitor weather developments in producing regions and bring coffee lovers the latest analysis.

According to reports from local Brazilian media, since last weekend, a cold wave has been shrouding the central-southern region of Brazil. Last week, a large mass of polar cold air advanced from southern Brazil, and by this week, a relatively large extratropical cyclone formed over the South Atlantic. Driven by it, an even stronger mass of polar air subsequently reached Brazil.

So far, southern Brazil has recorded winter precipitation twice. Initially, snow and freezing rain appeared in the southern part of the Santa Catarina plateau, and afterward, the city of São José dos Ausentes in Rio Grande do Sul also reported snow and freezing rain.

With the continuous intrusion of cold air, temperatures dropped sharply. In recent days, the lowest temperatures recorded in multiple Brazilian states have remained at extremely low levels. Among them, Santa Catarina recorded a low of -6.8°C, while the temperature in Rio Grande do Sul dropped to -5.3°C.

In addition to the south, temperatures in Brazil's central-west and southeast regions also declined. Inland temperatures in Mato Grosso do Sul fell to 0.0°C. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro experienced their coldest August weather in 13 years. According to official data released by the National Institute of Meteorology, Rio de Janeiro's lowest temperature dropped to 8.3°C, which is already very cold by the city's climate standards.

However, the most severe situation is in the mountainous area of southern Minas Gerais, where this cold wave broke Brazil's record for the lowest temperature. According to observatory records, the lowest climate value reached -5.8°C, while weather stations recorded even lower temperatures, ranging between -6.4°C and -6.9°C.

At the same time, the cyclone also affected Brazil's main port, the Port of Santos. According to reports, large waves have continued to appear in the waters from Santa Catarina to Espírito Santo in recent days, with wave heights reaching 4 meters. Constrained by severe weather conditions, cargo ships entering and leaving the Port of Santos had to suspend operations, further worsening delays at the port.

Usually, Brazil's winter is the quarter from June to August and will end on August 31, but the meteorological department judges that winter will continue until the spring equinox on September 22 before ending, which means winter will last for several more weeks. The meteorological department expects cold weather to continue in the coming weeks and may even bring an even colder period. A new round of low temperatures will occur in the second half of August, with southern Brazil being more heavily affected. In addition, the meteorological department is also worried that the upcoming La Niña phenomenon will further intensify Brazil's severe weather.

At present, Brazil's new coffee harvest is nearing completion, but the market remains worried that frosty weather will damage this year's coffee crop and pose a threat to coffee growth in the 2025/26 new season. This is especially true for the Arabica variety, as the mountainous area of Minas Gerais affected by low temperatures is a major Arabica-growing region. Therefore, Arabica and Robusta coffee futures prices have risen sharply in recent days.

This is because the current frost is accompanied by rainfall. If it rains before the cold weather, it may prompt coffee trees to bloom early, making them more vulnerable to frost damage; and if rainfall is insufficient, drought will likewise inhibit the growth and development of coffee plants, ultimately causing declines in both coffee quality and yield.

In fact, Brazil had previously suffered from drought and scarce rainfall. During the 2024/25 coffee harvest period, there was a problem of fewer coffee beans, and the final yield was consequently reduced. Precisely because of this, many Brazilian institutions have lowered their expectations for Brazil's coffee production in the new season. Combined with the current reports of low temperatures and light frost, coffee futures prices may see a relatively large increase.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.