How Will the Panama Climate Warning Affect the Coffee Industry?
A Panama National Adaptation Plan report projects that by 2050 rainfall in key farming and hydropower regions will drop by nearly 2.80%, while temperatures climb. Using global models and almost 30 years of weather station records, it maps conditions from 2050 to 2070. Coffee, bananas and sugar, the country's main export crops, are directly exposed to these shifts.
The report expects maximum temperatures in the eastern Caribbean and central regions to rise by at least 0.8°C by 2050 and 1.75°C by 2070, with minimum temperatures up 1.1°C and 2.18°C. Warmer nights disrupt photosynthesis and reduce soil cooling, encouraging pests. Panama has 1.71 million hectares of arable land and 20.8% of its workforce in agriculture, so changes in the production of coffee beans and other exports carry wide consequences.
The Panama National Adaptation Plan (NAP) project recently released a report that, using global models and nearly 30 years of meteorological data, simulated the country's climate trajectory from 2050 to 2070. The results show that reduced rainfall and rising temperatures will directly impact Panama's agricultural production, especially the cultivation and trade of export crops such as coffee and bananas. At the same time, shipping and hydropower generation on the Panama Canal will also face greater pressure due to drought. This article will walk you through the core findings of this report and their potential impact on the coffee industry.
Recently, the Panama National Adaptation Plan (NAP) project stated in a public announcement on April 25 that, due to the climate crisis, by 2050 rainfall in the regions where Panama's largest hydropower plants and agricultural land are located is expected to decrease by nearly 2.80%, directly affecting Panama's food security.
According to Panama's La Estrella, NAP recently used global models and referenced information and historical data from meteorological stations over the past 30 years to simulate Panama's latest climate changes from 2050 to 2070 and release a report.
According to the report, by 2050 the maximum temperature in regions such as the eastern Caribbean and the central region is expected to rise by at least 0.8°C, and by 2070 it will rise by 1.75°C; the minimum temperature will rise by at least 1.1°C, and by 2070 it will rise by 2.18°C across the country. The report analyzes that the rise in nighttime minimum temperatures leads to changes in plant photosynthesis, reduced soil cooling time, and an increase in pests caused by pathogens, thereby negatively affecting agricultural production.
Agriculture is an important sector of Panama's national economy. The country has 1.71 million hectares of arable land, and 20.8% of the labor force is engaged in agricultural production. Panama's main crops are rice, corn, and beans, while its main cash crops are bananas, sugarcane, and coffee, among which coffee, bananas, and sugar are mainly used for export. Changes in climate and temperature will affect crop growth, thereby affecting the export trade of agricultural products such as coffee and bananas.
In addition, it is expected that by 2050, within the hydroclimatic zones, annual precipitation will vary between -2.82% and +4.38%, and by 2070 the variation will be between -4.04% and +6.87%. By 2050, rainfall in the regions where Panama's largest hydropower plants and agricultural land are located is expected to decrease by nearly 2.80%, and these regions directly affect Panama's food security. On the other hand, heavy rainfall will increase in areas prone to floods and landslides.
Affected by the El Niño phenomenon, Panama now experiences drought once every three years. As an important shipping route for transporting food and energy from the east coast of North America and the Gulf of Mexico to Asia, the Panama Canal has also been subject to multiple transit restrictions in recent years due to drought and water shortages. The Panama Canal's lock system needs to be able to lift large ships to a height of 26 meters above sea level, and this requires a certain amount of rainfall to achieve.
In addition, hydropower accounts for 44% of Panama's total electricity consumption. In 2020, the Panama Canal Authority issued a report stating that due to low precipitation in the Panama Canal watershed in 2019, temporary water-saving measures would continue to be adopted to ensure the canal's normal passage, including suspending power generation at the Gatun Lake hydropower station.
Heavy rain will also affect agriculture. As early as 2022, there were reports about continuous heavy rainfall affecting Panama's national agriculture. Continuous heavy rainfall caused floods in many parts of Panama, damaging houses and affecting residents. At that time, Panama's Ministry of Agricultural Development also stated that heavy rain and floods had submerged large areas of farmland, and the economic losses were difficult to assess.
NAP project coordinator René Lopez said that climate change scenario simulations are only reasonable and simplified descriptions of the future, but this measure is crucial because it can help people make more timely and correct decisions that directly affect human health, social welfare, and economic growth.
For coffee lovers, if the microclimate of Panama's coffee-producing regions (such as Boquete) changes, it will directly affect the flavor performance of specialty coffees such as Geisha. Front Street Coffee recommends that consumers who love Panamanian coffee pay attention to climate developments in the producing regions and try comparing batches from different years to experience the subtle effects of climate on coffee quality.
The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
