How Does Warming Past 1.5°C Affect the Coffee Industry?
Global temperatures have crossed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, the safety boundary set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Arabica beans make up about 60% of world production and are highly sensitive to climate conditions, so the shift threatens the coffee industry directly. Drought, disrupted rainfall, hail, and disease have already pushed supply below demand for two consecutive years.
Some forecasts project warming of 2.5°C by the end of this century, a level at which most coffee-growing regions in the coffee belt could become unsuitable for cultivation. In response, Starbucks, Colombian research institutions, and a growing number of producing countries are developing new varieties and reassessing the role of Robusta, which tolerates heat and disease better than Arabica.
Global temperatures have breached the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for the first time, a shift that is profoundly shaking the foundations of the coffee industry. Arabica beans account for about 60% of global production but are extremely sensitive to climate conditions, and rising temperatures have brought droughts, hail, and disease that have led to two consecutive years of supply falling short of demand. Some experts warn that if warming continues to reach 2.5°C by the end of this century, most coffee-growing regions may disappear. Facing the crisis, Starbucks, Colombian research institutions, and a growing number of producing countries are seeking a way forward by cultivating new varieties and reassessing the value of Robusta. Front Street Coffee will also continue to monitor the far-reaching effects of climate change on coffee flavor and the supply chain.
Will Corby, Director of Coffee and Social Impact at global trader Pact Coffee, recently issued a warning: every further intensification of global warming poses a serious threat to the coffee industry. At the same time, the European Union's climate monitoring agency announced that the global temperature rise has already crossed the 1.5°C threshold.
This is the first time human activity-driven warming has breached the 1.5°C limit above "pre-industrial" levels, a figure that is precisely the safety boundary set in the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. At the 2015 United Nations climate conference, a consensus was reached: keeping warming within 1.5°C can substantially reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Now that this line of defense has been breached, it poses a severe challenge to the outlook for Arabica coffee beans—a variety that accounts for about 60% of total global coffee production and occupies a pivotal position.
Rising temperatures have brought a series of problems to the "coffee belt," including severe water shortages, disrupted rainfall patterns, hail destroying crops, and increased disease risk. Precisely because of this, coffee supply over the past two years has consistently failed to keep pace with demand. Some forecasts indicate that global warming could reach 2.5°C by the end of this century, at which point the vast majority of coffee-growing regions will no longer be suitable for cultivation.
The director also added that over the past decade, the impact of climate change on producing countries has become clearly visible, and for farmers it has been a devastating blow. In lower-altitude production areas, farms can no longer continue to cultivate high-quality Arabica, and farmers have been forced to expand cultivation into higher-altitude mountain areas, ending up heavily in debt and triggering deforestation—and the disappearance of forests is itself one of the factors driving global warming, ultimately creating a vicious cycle.
In response to this situation, many countries and coffee companies are actively cultivating new varieties. For example, Starbucks earlier announced the release of six new Arabica varieties adaptable to climate change, with both good yield potential and quite excellent cupping performance. Colombia, meanwhile, launched Cenicafe 1, a new variety developed based on Caturra, with notable flavor performance as well as resistance to leaf rust and coffee berry disease.
At the same time, Robusta is receiving increasing attention. In the past, Robusta was long regarded as inferior in quality to Arabica, but climate change is threatening the future of the entire industry, making investment in Robusta production increasingly critical, since Robusta is clearly more climate-tolerant than Arabica. At present, some countries that originally grew Arabica, such as Nicaragua, have begun trying to introduce Robusta. In the future, coffee farmers are expected to grow more refined Robusta varieties, and more Robusta coffee beans or entirely new coffee varieties will appear on the market to cope with the climate crisis. Front Street Coffee will also continue to track the actual flavor performance of these new varieties.
The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.
