How Rising Coffee Production Reshapes Global Trade

Brazil's coffee exports to China passed the 1 million bag mark for the first time, reaching 1,151,768 bags of 60 kg, according to the Brazil Coffee Exporters Council. The European Union remains the largest buyer of Brazilian coffee, with 5,470,729 bags exported in 2023. The growth reflects China's expanding cafe culture and younger drinkers.

The USDA forecasts global coffee production of 171.4 million bags in 2023/24, 6.9 million bags more than the previous year, driven largely by higher arabica coffee output in Brazil. EU imports are expected to rise by 100,000 bags to 4.6 million, about 40 percent of world imports, sourced mainly from Brazil, Vietnam, Uganda, and Honduras.

The latest data from the Brazil Coffee Exporters Council shows that Brazil's coffee exports to China have surpassed the 1 million bag mark for the first time, reaching 1,151,768 bags (60 kg/bag), and the growth momentum is expected to continue. Meanwhile, the European Union remains the largest destination for Brazilian coffee exports, with exports reaching 5,470,729 bags in 2023. The rapid growth of China's coffee consumption, the increase in global coffee production, and changes in the import structure of major consuming countries are reshaping the global coffee trade landscape. Front Street Coffee continues to monitor global coffee market trends and bring the latest industry news to enthusiasts.

A recent survey released by the Brazil Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe) shows that Brazil's coffee exports to China have crossed the 1 million bag threshold for the first time (each bag 60 kg), with a specific figure of 1,151,768 bags, and this number is expected to continue rising. However, in terms of total export volume, the European Union remains the largest buyer of Brazilian coffee, with Brazil's exports to the EU reaching 5,470,729 bags (60 kg/bag) in 2023.

A report by Brazil's Folha de S.Paulo pointed out that during the 2022/23 coffee season, coffee consumption in the Chinese market rose significantly, mainly driven by two factors: first, the increasing number of coffee shops in many Chinese cities, and second, the steadily rising demand for coffee among China's younger population. For a country like Brazil, which ranks among the world's major coffee exporters, growth in the Chinese market is undoubtedly a positive signal.

The Coffee: World Markets and Trade report released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that global coffee production in 2023/24 will reach 171.4 million bags, an increase of 6.9 million bags from the previous year. This increase is mainly attributed to higher Arabica coffee production in Brazil. The European Union, the United States, Japan, and Brazil remain the world's largest coffee consuming countries and regions, while China is showing clear upward momentum.

The European Union's coffee imports are expected to increase by 100,000 bags to 4.6 million bags, accounting for 40% of total global coffee imports. Its main import sources are Brazil (40%), Vietnam (20%), Uganda (8%), and Honduras (7%). The EU's ending stocks are expected to decrease by 400,000 bags to 12.4 million bags, while consumption rises slightly.

U.S. coffee imports are expected to increase by 500,000 bags to 25.5 million bags, with the main source countries being Brazil (30%), Colombia (19%), Vietnam (10%), and Honduras (7%). U.S. ending stocks are expected to increase by 300,000 bags to 6.5 million bags.

It is also predicted that China's coffee consumption in 2023/24 will reach 5 million bags, making it the world's seventh-largest coffee consuming country. Data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that China's coffee consumption in 2022/23 increased by 15% year on year, reaching a total of 3.08 million bags. During the same period, China imported 1.15 million bags of coffee from Brazil, more than double the transaction volume in the same period of 2022, and China has risen to become Brazil's eighth-largest main coffee export destination.

In addition, an annual report on the Southeast Asian coffee market previously released by World Coffee Portal, a research institution under Allegra Group, showed that China has overtaken the United States to become the country with the largest number of branded coffee shops in the world. Although China still lags behind the United States and the European Union in total coffee consumption, its future growth potential is enormous. At present, Brazil is actively seeking cooperation talks with China to advance the development of Brazilian coffee trade projects.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.