How does extreme heat affect coffee production in major growing regions?

Sustained high temperatures and drier-than-normal conditions have cut coffee production across several origins. Vietnam recorded its worst drought in nearly a decade, damaging coffee trees and dragging down output, Indonesia is still recovering from last year's drought with smaller exportable volumes, Brazil's crop fell short of expectations, and roughly 80% of Mexico's planted area was affected, with losses estimated at up to 50%.

Colombia moved in the opposite direction, with first-half output reaching a three-year high. The widening production cuts pushed the ICO composite coffee price index up 8.9% month on month, and traders expect La Nina weather patterns to keep prices volatile through the coming season, since rainfall timing strongly shapes flowering and cherry development on each coffee farm.

After entering summer, many countries around the world have experienced sustained high temperatures, with sea surface temperatures generally higher than normal except in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and land temperatures also rising, impacting agricultural production including coffee. Vietnam has suffered its worst drought in nearly a decade, with severe damage to coffee trees; Indonesia is still weighed down by last year's drought, reducing exportable volumes; Brazil's output fell short of expectations, and about 80% of Mexico's planted area was affected, with production expected to drop by up to 50%. Meanwhile, Colombia's first-half output hit a three-year high. The widening production cuts drove the ICO composite coffee price index up 8.9% month-on-month, and La Niña weather may further exacerbate volatility.

Recently, media in many parts of the world have reported that multiple countries experienced sustained high temperatures and hot weather after the start of summer. According to data from the Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU), sea surface temperatures in almost all regions except the eastern equatorial Pacific are above normal levels for the time of year, and this trend is expected to continue.

This means that temperatures in almost all land areas will be above normal, and the high temperatures are thus affecting agricultural production in many parts of the world, with the coffee industry likewise unable to escape.

In Asia, Vietnam has reported its worst drought in nearly a decade this year, dealing a heavy blow to the coffee-growing industry, with coffee trees suffering damage that is difficult to repair and production falling sharply. Although some coffee farmers have tried every means to stabilize output, forecasts for next season's harvest in both the international market and Vietnam remain pessimistic, and it is widely believed that international coffee prices will continue to rise.

According to local Vietnamese weather reports, rain began to appear in Vietnam's coffee-growing areas in May, but rainfall remained below the historical average until June, while temperatures across the country were also higher than in previous years.

According to data from Vietnam's General Department of Customs, affected by reduced production and rising domestic coffee consumption, Vietnam exported a total of 1,170,033 bags of coffee (60 kg per bag) in June 2024, down 11.5% from May this year and far below the government's forecast of 1.42 million bags. Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that coffee bean inventories in Vietnam's domestic market are currently almost zero.

In Indonesia, the country has suffered a series of natural disasters this year, including floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Although the weather has now improved somewhat, coffee-producing areas are still affected by the aftermath of the 2023 drought, with recovery progressing slowly and output only slightly rebounding; at the same time, domestic consumption has increased, reducing the volume available for export.

In the Americas, Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, has also been affected by high temperatures and drought, with coffee output falling short of expectations and coffee beans tending to be smaller. Local coffee institutions say that actual output at some coffee estates is less than 30% of market expectations, and Brazil's total coffee output may be 10% to 15% lower than expected.

In addition, another American country, Mexico, has also reported severe drought and insufficient rainfall. According to local media reports, about 80% of Mexico's coffee-growing area has been affected, and production for the 2024/25 season is expected to fall by as much as 50%.

In Chiapas, Mexico's main growing region, both Arabica and Robusta coffee are cultivated, and the current drought is damaging the production of both types of coffee at the same time. It is currently the growing season for Mexican coffee berries, but due to the lack of rain and the ongoing drought, the berries have not grown noticeably, which may affect production in the next season.

However, there is good news from Colombia. According to data from the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FNC), Colombia's coffee production in June 2024 totaled 1.17 million bags, up 23% year-on-year and also up 4.6% from May of the same year. In the first half of this year, Colombia's coffee bean output reached 5.82 million bags, up 16% year-on-year, setting the best record in three years.

Although Colombia reported increased production, coffee prices rose again because other major coffee-producing countries all reported lower output. Recently, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) released its monthly average composite coffee price index for June at 226.83 cents/lb, up 8.9% from May, with spot prices for all categories of coffee rising to varying degrees. Institutions believe that the La Niña weather that may occur next will intensify weather changes, and prices still have room to rise.

The above content is compiled by CoffeeHunters, a coffee news website.